Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1208 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT AN UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS/WX. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. A MESOSCALE UPDATE FOCUSING ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. WE WILL LAUNCH A 19Z SPECIAL
SOUNDING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

AVIATION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
CONFIDENCE TO BE LOW FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. ROUGHLY FROM 19Z THROUGH 03Z WILL BE OUR
WINDOW TO POTENTIALLY SEE CONVECTION NEAR THE KAMA AND KGUY
TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS COULD IMPACT KDHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TAF UPDATES AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW THAT GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
UP OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE 40KT RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY WITH
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE OR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY 21Z
TODAY AND 00Z TUESDAY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE. THE CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES. A COLD RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS COMING IN DRIER WITH THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP FOR THE
PANHANDLES AND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND KANSAS.
HOWEVER...540 THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY 21Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THINKING ANY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF AND MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES.
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED UPPER LOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH COOLER BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONT. A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN FORECAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND EXPECTED TO BE DRY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THIS COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CONTINUED DRY LATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/17/09/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-162100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
343 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS
THIS AREA...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER TO MIAMI
TO CLARENDON.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AN INCH OR LESS COULD FALL.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE
READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCHNEIDER