Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF A POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE AND THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL KEEP THE CONFIDENCE
LOW FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME TO POSSIBLY REACH KDHT PRIOR TO 06Z
TONIGHT. KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO REACH THE
TERMINALS AROUND THE 06Z HOUR AS WELL. AS THIS THREAT APPROACHES THE
TERMINALS WE COULD ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR EACH TERMINAL. THESE LOW
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS COULD TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE 700MB AND 500 MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE 700 MB FRONT WILL
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED HAIL AS THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
OVER THE COLD DOME. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

A MUCH COOLER DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT /BEST SEEN ON
THE 310K SURFACE/ WANES BY MIDDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST. MORNING LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME RESULTANT AFTERNOON
INSOLATION...CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL AS
WELL...DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AS THE 1015-1020MB SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN QUASI-ZONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
RESULTANT CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INDUCING LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY...BACK INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND
TO NEAR 90F BY FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK TO INCREASE TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FRIDAY TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION.

A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY...SENDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REGARDING HOW QUICKLY
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH IT POSSIBLY HANGING UP
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO SUPPORT SOME LINGERING
LOW-END CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/3

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
316 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
316 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.