Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COMPLEX OF TSTMS WAS ORGANIZING ACROSS NWRN
PARTS OF TX AND OK PNHDLS AS OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH TAF SITES POTENTIALLY IMPACTED. HAVE
RETAINED A MENTION OF TSTMS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE NEAR THE
TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO INDUCE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL TROF.  CURVATURE IN TIGHT 700 MB
CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO GENERATE VORTICITY LOBES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
MOISTENED FURTHER BY DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT.  ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO MAKE A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  SUCH A
COMPLEX COULD TAKE ON A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DUE TO RECENT COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE FROM 4 PM TODAY
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY.  FULLY EXPECT TO CLEAR MOST OF AREA FROM WATCH
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN
EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED. DRY FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
833 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-041130-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
833 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HEAVY RAIN FROM
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES BEGINNING AT 4 PM TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH. HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL
SIZE IS POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM
FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH
10 AM TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE READY FOR
LIMITED ACTIVATION THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS AND OBSERVERS ARE REQUESTED
TO RELAY ANY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN AMARILLO.

COCKRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NE WARE              36.31N 102.54W
08/03/2015  E65 MPH          DALLAM             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500676

EA

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