Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE RETAINED THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURG THE FIRST FEW TO SEVERAL
HOURS OF THIS FCST. MVFR CIGS PSBL AT KGUY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FOR KDHT AND KAMA SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SCT DECK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
THIS WEATHER ELEMENT IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
STORMS WILL FORM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH GENERALLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND LOWER
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING.

NF

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LEADING SHORTWAVE IS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES.
THESE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT 20-30 POPS THROUGH 18Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES FAVORED DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE BENDING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVERHEAD
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
MAIN THRUST OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED BACK NM/AZ ONCE
MORE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB UP TO THE
MID-/UPPER-90S BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT
EDGING INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ONLY GFS
INDICATING THIS CURRENTLY.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
525 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-091030-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
525 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AS
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 70 MPH POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SUBMIT ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
738 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             CHANNING                35.68N 102.33W
07/08/2015  E2.75 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

            HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500617

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
801 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             7 S CHANNING            35.58N 102.33W
07/08/2015  E2.75 INCH       OLDHAM             TX   STORM CHASER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500619

LORENZEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
808 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             CHANNING                35.68N 102.33W
07/08/2015  E2.50 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500620

EA

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