Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH GENERALLY
HIGHER CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND LOWER
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LEADING SHORTWAVE IS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES.
THESE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT 20-30 POPS THROUGH 18Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES FAVORED DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE BENDING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVERHEAD
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH SOME REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
MAIN THRUST OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED BACK NM/AZ ONCE
MORE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB UP TO THE
MID-/UPPER-90S BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT
EDGING INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ONLY GFS
INDICATING THIS CURRENTLY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  85  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  30  20
BEAVER OK                  64  84  67  88  70 /  60  40  40  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              60  84  63  86  65 /  60  40  50  20  10
BORGER TX                  67  86  67  86  69 /  60  40  40  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              64  88  66  86  67 /  50  40  50  30  20
CANYON TX                  63  86  65  83  66 /  40  30  40  30  20
CLARENDON TX               65  87  67  86  67 /  40  20  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 62  86  64  87  65 /  50  40  50  20  10
GUYMON OK                  64  86  66  88  68 /  70  40  50  20  10
HEREFORD TX                64  86  65  84  66 /  40  40  40  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                65  86  68  87  70 /  60  30  40  20  20
PAMPA TX                   64  84  65  84  67 /  60  30  40  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                65  88  68  87  68 /  40  30  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              67  89  69  89  70 /  40  30  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

08/06

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
354 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

OKZ001-082200-
CIMARRON OK-
354 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CIMARRON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF FELT...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BOISE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOISE CITY...         FELT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3678 10245 3652 10238 3652 10289 3670 10292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 270DEG 16KT 3660 10277

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
421 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

OKZ001-TXZ001-082215-
CIMARRON OK-DALLAM TX-
421 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DALLAM AND SOUTHWESTERN
CIMARRON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF TEXLINE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FELT...               WARE...               TEXLINE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3650 10305 3651 10301 3663 10300 3656 10249
      3607 10261 3606 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 280DEG 21KT 3643 10299

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