Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
224 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM HRX TO JUST SOUTH
OF AMA TO PPA TO HHF AT 2 PM. THE FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS
EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF LOW CLOUDS CAN HANG ON FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...SOME PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE THESE AREAS MAY REACH
INTO THE 70S. THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR AMARILLO
ON TUESDAY IS 65 DEGREES.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY MAY CUT DOWN ON OUR CHANCES.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE SHEAR ALOFT INCREASES ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN OUR FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  68  57  82  63 /  90  40  30  20  30
BEAVER OK                  63  74  58  83  64 /  60  30  20  20  50
BOISE CITY OK              58  76  55  85  62 /  40  20  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  64  71  58  84  66 /  90  40  20  20  40
BOYS RANCH TX              61  72  58  87  64 /  90  30  20  20  40
CANYON TX                  60  69  58  84  63 /  90  40  30  20  30
CLARENDON TX               63  70  58  82  64 / 100  60  40  20  20
DALHART TX                 59  73  57  87  63 /  80  20  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  61  74  57  84  66 /  40  20  20  20  40
HEREFORD TX                61  70  58  86  63 /  90  40  30  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                63  70  57  82  66 /  80  60  20  20  40
PAMPA TX                   60  67  57  79  65 /  90  50  20  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                65  72  59  81  63 / 100  70  30  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              68  74  60  83  66 / 100  70  50  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

01/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-070800-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD ON TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GOEHRING

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