Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME WILL THREATEN KGUY IMMEDIATELY.  COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT KDHT AROUND 03Z FRIDAY...AND AT KAMA
AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.  OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.  HAVE CONTINUED FORECAST OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGINNING BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH SUCH CEILINGS PERSISTING ALL
DAY.  IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WAITING UNTIL BETTER
DETERMINATION OF TIMING CAN BE OBTAINED.  AT KAMA...CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS APPARENT WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
EVIDENT BY VEERED SURFACE WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MIXING HAS BEEN INEFFECTIVE AT
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING DEW POINTS WITH LOW TO MID 60S PREVALENT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE MOST EXTENSIVE CU
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT AND THIS
WILL PROBABLY BE THE AREA WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS FIRST. ANOTHER
AREA OF INTEREST IS FURTHER SOUTH JUST WEST OF AMARILLO WHERE
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS HINT AT A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. SURFACE HEATING
OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF/MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND EPISODES. THE BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH WHERE IMPINGING SPEED MAX HAS RESULTED IN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THAT SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND SHOW LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASING TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A PRECEDING WAVE MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST HAS FORCED A COLD FRONT (MENTIONED
ABOVE) SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT JUST AS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WEST
KANSAS AND EVEN INTO NEBRASKA. WITH MOIST INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW POST FRONTAL...IN COMBINATION WITH COOLING ALOFT/ASCENT
IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE FROM
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CONVECTION MAY BECOME RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS MAY BE TOO SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND COLD POOL
GENERATION AUGMENT THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. IN SUCH A
CASE...COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW MAY CLEAR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA BY MORNING WHICH IS CONTRARY TO WHAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
THIS BRINGS A MYRIAD OF FORECAST CHALLENGES FROM POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND TRYING TO TIME THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING FRIDAY EVENING AND A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE. MOISTURE BECOMES QUITE ANOMALOUS DURING THIS TIME AND
SO THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE POTENTIAL
OF A BACK BUILDING MCS FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEAK NEGATIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS PER MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES FROM
1.00-1.50 IN THE WESTERN HALF AND OVER 1.50 IN THE EAST) WILL
NECESSITATE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND PERIODS OF GREATEST
PROBABILITIES IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME RANGE AS IT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON SMALL SCALE EMBEDDED MID-UPPER WAVES AND MESOSCALE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DELINEATE
THIS BETTER. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS...FLOODING IS
INCREASINGLY BECOMING A CONCERN BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED SMALLER SCALE
AND TEMPORAL DETAILS MAKE HIGHLIGHTING A SPECIFIC AREA AND SEGMENTING
A SPECIFIC TIME FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT AND
WILL DEFER POSSIBLE ISSUANCE TO LATER SHIFTS.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR BY MID WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL AND LESS
PERTURBED FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. EVEN WITH THESE CHANGES ON THE
LARGE SCALE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS A PERIODIC QPF SIGNAL
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION PROPAGATING
EASTWARD IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY DIFFICULT TO TIME/RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES MAY IMPACT AT LEAST WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THEN.
LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER REFINE THIS POTENTIAL.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  77  61  78  64 /  30  70  50  60  60
BEAVER OK                  63  70  61  81  64 /  80  70  70  60  60
BOISE CITY OK              58  66  55  78  60 /  80  60  40  50  40
BORGER TX                  66  77  63  80  66 /  60  70  60  60  60
BOYS RANCH TX              63  78  61  80  64 /  40  50  40  60  60
CANYON TX                  65  79  61  80  63 /  30  60  50  60  60
CLARENDON TX               66  81  63  79  65 /  50  70  70  60  60
DALHART TX                 60  71  57  79  61 /  60  50  40  50  50
GUYMON OK                  61  69  59  80  63 /  80  70  60  60  50
HEREFORD TX                64  81  60  80  63 /  30  40  40  60  60
LIPSCOMB TX                66  76  63  79  66 /  80  70  70  60  60
PAMPA TX                   64  76  60  78  64 /  60  70  70  60  60
SHAMROCK TX                67  81  64  80  65 /  50  70  80  60  60
WELLINGTON TX              68  84  66  82  67 /  50  70  80  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-120930-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
422 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS THAT FORM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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