Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE DALHART AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES...AND THE GUYMON TAF SITE COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM PRIOR TO 02Z SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 05Z TO
11Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MIX EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH BREEZY UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WHICH MAY SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES OR EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COOL AND
MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BRIEF DRYING POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
COLD FRONTS ALONG WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP NEAR OR
BELOW SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-120900-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
359 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
CDT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALSO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

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