Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A
HOTTER AIR MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ARE EXPANDING SLOWLY EAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...AND COULD JUST GRAZE PARTS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO
SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. JUST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOSTLY OF THE GARDEN VARIETY...MAYBE SOME GUSTY WINDS OR
VERY SMALL HAIL WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.

ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE...SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WILL GRADUALLY DISAPPEAR MAKING FOR INTERVALS OF CLOUDS IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. WITH
THE NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND SOME PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AROUND 60
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY SEEN IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...THEN TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS A
LITTLE BIT OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY AND
AS IT EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY...WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE
VERY WEAK AS WELL. THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK...AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES A BIT.

STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY AND BUILD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...BUT AS
WITH TODAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SOLIDLY INTO THE
80S...AROUND 80 NORTH AND NEAR 90 SOUTH.

THE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AS IT SINKS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY...AND MAYBE IN AREAS OF TERRAIN
WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME LOCALIZED TERRAIN CONVERGENCE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BUT THERE SHOULD NOT
BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY. THUNDERSTORMS TOO ISOLATED...
THOUGH...TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

MORE SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONCE AGAIN...
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME...SO TYPICAL
AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONVECTIVE AND SCATTERED...SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF GREATER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS THE MAIN JET STREAM PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL
CANADA. A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FASTER FLOW MAY ALLOW
WEAKENING COLD FRONTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUE...BUT
COULD BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE REACHING OUR REGION...ESP AS DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z/14 ECMWF. WILL THEREFORE KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD BE IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
POSSIBLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AND
ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

THE 12Z/14 GFS AND GEFS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THU-THU NT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...STILL WITHIN THE
CHC RANGE.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEY AREAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...COOLEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MAY BE MORE FREQUENT BY LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITHIN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE. IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATELY HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S IN
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH TO POUGHKEEPSIE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE
FROM SYRACUSE...TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO JUST WEST OF BURLINGTON. A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT THE TAF
SITES. FOR NOW COVERED THIS WITH VCSH. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
5-10 KTS ...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE WITH MAINLY BKN-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KGFL.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A
HOTTER AIR MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 45-65 PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 75 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
INTO THIS EVENING...AND BE LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY...TRENDING
TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST TODAY
WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-151100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
418 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST AT AROUND 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER OF ROADWAYS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NYZ033-142100-
HAMILTON-
410 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 409 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 12 MILES WEST OF LAKE
PLEASANT...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPECULATOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPECULATOR...LAKE PLEASANT...MOFFITT BEACH CAMPGROUND...GILMANTOWN...
SHAKER PLACE...PERKINS CLEARING...GIRARDS SUGARBUSH...MOUNTAIN
HOME...HIGGINS BAY...CLOCKMILL CORNERS...RUDESTON...POWLEY PLACE...
SLED HARBOR...GRIFFIN...PISECO...HOFFMEISTER AND WHITEHOUSE.

LAT...LON 4327 7465 4341 7477 4372 7422 4346 7418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 240DEG 34KT 4340 7464

KL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NYZ041-050-053-084-142115-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-NORTHERN SARATOGA-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN
RENSSELAER-
439 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RENSSELAER...
SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COUNTRY KNOLLS...OR
NEAR CLIFTON PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIFTON PARK...MECHANICVILLE...BALLSTON SPA...ROUND LAKE...BURNT
HILLS...COUNTRY KNOLLS...EAST GLENVILLE...HALFMOON...MALTA...
PITTSTOWN...EASTON...STILLWATER...VICTORY...SCHAGHTICOKE...VALLEY
FALLS...FRANCIS CORNERS...THE SARATOGA BATTLLEFIELD...MALTAVILLE...
DEANS CORNERS AND EAST SARATOGA JUNCITON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 87 NEAR MILE MARKER 13...
AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12-13 AND 9-10...AND NEAR MILE MARKER 8A .

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4284 7348 4282 7372 4282 7373 4281 7374
      4280 7385 4283 7388 4285 7388 4285 7390
      4291 7390 4291 7393 4297 7395 4310 7355
      4289 7347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 254DEG 18KT 4291 7383

SND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NYZ038-039-142130-
SOUTHERN FULTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
446 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...

AT 446 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER UTICA...MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
NEWPORT...MIDDLEVILLE...POLAND...COLD BROOK...CEDARVILLE...
FAIRFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...NORWAY...WINDFALL...MARTIN CORNERS...FINK
BASIN...BEACON LIGHT CORNERS...KAST BRIDGE AND FAIRVIEW CORNERS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4332 7484 4327 7471 4323 7471
      4315 7472 4314 7474 4312 7473 4305 7475
      4305 7476 4303 7474 4300 7475 4291 7520
      4292 7520 4305 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 239DEG 24KT 4306 7520

KL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NYZ039-040-142130-
MONTGOMERY-SOUTHERN FULTON-
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FONDA...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMSTERDAM...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...FONDA...EPHRATAH...HAGAMAN...
FORT JOHNSON...TRIBES HILL...PERTH...GLEN...FULTONVILLE...SNOOKS
CORNERS...HILL CORNERS...AURIESVILLE...MCKINLEY...BERRYVILLE...
ROCKTON...MINAVILLE...BERGEN PARK AND HONEYWELL CORNERS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4306 7411 4289 7409 4289 7410 4285 7455
      4301 7456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 269DEG 21KT 4293 7446

KL

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