Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-048>054-058>061-083-084-VTZ013>015-051100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL REGION...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE HELDERBERGS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-NYZ032-033-038>040-047-063>066-082-051100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NYZ053-054-060-061-041630-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN
COLUMBIA-
1158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RENSSELAER AND
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 1158 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NASSAU...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAST GREENBUSH...NASSAU...STEPHENTOWN...BERLIN...
CASTLETON-ON-HUDSON...AVERILL PARK...WEST SAND LAKE...SAND LAKE...
POESTENKILL...EAST NASSAU...RIDERS...DENAULT CORNERS...PETERSBURG...
BRAESIDE...DUNHAM HOLLOW...TABORTON...TOTEM LODGE...WYOMANOCK...
NIVERVILLE AND EAST POESTENKILL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4249 7336 4243 7369 4257 7375 4260 7376
      4277 7332 4270 7328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 249DEG 24KT 4254 7364

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NYZ060-061-041715-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 1248 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LIVINGSTON...OR NEAR
CATSKILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUDSON...CLAVERACK...LIVINGSTON...COPAKE...CLERMONT...AUSTERLITZ...
PHILMONT...CLAVERACK-RED MILLS...GERMANTOWN...HILLSDALE...
TAGHKANIC...HOLLOWVILLE...CHEVIOT...OAK HILL LANDING...NEW FORGE...
ELIZAVILLE...EAST TAGHKANIC...COPAKE FALLS...EAST HILLSDALE AND
MARTINDALE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4208 7391 4213 7391 4217 7389 4218 7387
      4220 7385 4222 7385 4235 7347 4230 7343
      4210 7350 4204 7379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 247DEG 26KT 4215 7376

LFM/SND