Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Wakefield, VA

Dorchester County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Gates County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Accomack County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, James City County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PULLING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND THAT HAS HELPED SPREAD CIRRUS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CURRENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE E...WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING
OVER THE WRN VA PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS COLD
AS THEY COULD...STILL VERY COLD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
AREA-WIDE (WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW
COVER). WILL RE-ISSUE SPS ALL ZONES FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM SNOW/ICE TOTALS FROM THE STORM SEE LATEST PNS OR LSR
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. OVERALL...BULK OF CENTRAL AND SRN VA
RECEIVED 5-8" OF SNOW/SLEET FROM THIS EVENT. RATHER SURPRISING
HOWEVER IS THAT LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS REMAINED RATHER LOW EVEN ON THE
FRONT END OF THIS SYSTEM MON EVENING WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND NO MIX EVEN CLOSE DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

A FEW EXAMPLES THROUGH 06Z THIS MORNING WITH JUST SNOW AS P-TYPE:

KOFP: 0.53" WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ~5" SNOW THROUGH THAT PERIOD
KRIC: 0.54" WATER EQUIVALENT WITH  5.0" SNOW THROUGH THAT PERIOD

THIS YIELDS LIQUID:SNOW RATIO VALUES OF BETWEEN 9:1 AND 10:1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN/EVE...POTENTIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS...(PSBLY LIKE WHAT
OCCURRED THIS PAST SAT). HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW
HRS...GENLY NOT MUCH CHC FOR PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 21Z ALONG/W OF
I-95...AND AFTER 00Z NEAR THE COAST. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...BUT NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LIFT THROUGH
THE -10 TO -20 C DGZ LAYER TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
MOST AREAS FOR A FEW HRS (EARLIEST NW AND LATEST E/SE). COULD SEE
UP TO 1" ACCUMULATION W/ THIS GIVEN THE COLD. HI TEMPS WED FM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE MID 30S SE...LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURS/FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WILL PROBABLY NEED
A WIND CHILL ADSY FOR THU INTO FRI MORNING AIRMASS WITH GENERALLY
DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
COLD...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. LOWS
THU IN THE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOWER TEENS E (WIND AND MIXING
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS MUCH AS THEY COULD). HIGHS
THU IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST IN
DECADES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...AS SFC HIGH OVER KY SLOWLY BUILDS E. STILL NOT AN IDEAL
SETUP FOR FULL DE-COUPLING...BEST CHC WOULD BE ALONG/W OF I-95.
GIVEN THE SNOWPACK HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH
LOWS 0 TO -5 F WEST OF I-95 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
EAST (AROUND 10 F AT SE VA/NE NC COAST). SUNNY BUT COLD WITH LESS
WIND FRI...HIGHS AGAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LO
PRES AFFECTS THE ERN CONUS. FOR FRI NGT...STRONG SFC HI PRES REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LEADING TO ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 5-10 DEG RANGE...WITH LO TO
MID TEENS NR THE CST. LARGE AREA OF WAA PCPN THEN APPROACHES FM THE
W SAT WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LO PRES CENTER. PCPN WILL BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE AFTN HRS (50-60% POPS NW HALF OF AREA) DURING THE DAY
SAT...AND SHOULD START AS SNOW SAT MORNG THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND RAIN FM S TO N THRU THE DAY AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPR 30S. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST SAT
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COMBO N HALF
OF AREA AND PLAIN RAIN S HALF OF AREA. A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON
SFC TEMPS. WARMER SUN WITH THE SFC LO JUST W/N OF THE FA...AND PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE MID 40S
TO LWR 50S. THE PCPN THEN ENDS SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FM NW TO SE. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SHORTLY AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS PCPN FREE ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD
ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES RIC. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY BUT WENT NO LOWER THAN 2K FT WITH THE
CEILINGS LATE IN THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE PSBL WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. VFR CONDS ARE
INDICATED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS PSBL SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE MRNG WHEN IFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR. RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY
AND LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BUOY 44009 CONTINUES NEAR 5 FT AND WITH INCREASING
N WINDS OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SCA IN ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS...FOR NOW THROUGH 4 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOISTED A SCA OVER REMAINING CSTL WTRS ZONES AS 44009 HAS GOTTEN
UP TO 5 FT THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE EVENG HRS.
ALSO ALLOWED THE SCA OVR THE BAY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN
BLO 15 KT WITH WAVES 2-3 FT. IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN INTO WED
AS WEAK SFC HI PRES SLIDES OVER THE REGION. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS THEN
RAMP UP AGAIN WED NIGHT FOLLOWING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FROPA.
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE BAY AND OCEAN FOR THE THIRD AND FOURTH
PERIOD WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT PSBL. SCA ISSUED FOR
THE RIVERS AND SOUND WHERE WINDS AOB 30 KT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE
CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES.
HI PRES THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SUB-SCA
CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE TEENS. AT
RICHMOND...THE LAST TIME THERE WERE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WAS BACK ON JAN 29TH-30TH IN 1966...WHEN
BOTH DAYS HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGS F.

THERE WAS ONLY ONE TIME THAT RICHMOND HAD A MINIMUM BELOW ZERO
AFTER FEBRUARY 11TH. THIS WAS A READING OF MINUS 1 ON FEB 28 IN
1934. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO WAS
ON JANUARY 28 IN 2000 WITH A READING OF MINUS 1.

THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS
WAS FEB 4 1996...18 DEGS F.

THE LAST TIME NORFOLK HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS
WAS JAN 19 1994...13 DEGS F.

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES...

     ...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20
RIC... 27 IN 1903   30 IN 1947
ORF... 30 IN 1993   29 IN 1904
SBY... 25 IN 1993   24 IN 1959

RECORD LOW MIN TEMPERATURES

     ...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20
RIC... 10 IN 1979    3 IN 1979
ORF... 14 IN 1903   13 IN 1896
SBY...  9 IN 1936    3 IN 1979

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-077>100-190315-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-NORTHAMPTON NC-
HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-MECKLENBURG-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
1005 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO SNOW AND
ICE COVERED ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS.

WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-049-060>064-066>076-190315-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
1005 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO SNOW AND
ICE COVERED ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS.

WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>