Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSHES
OFF THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AIRMASS PRIMED AND READY FOR CONVECTION INTO THIS EVE. CLUSTERS OF
TSTMS CONTG TO DEVELOP OVR SE VA INTO NE NC...WHILE OTHER AREAS OF
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS OCCURRING MNLY W AND NW OF THE RIC-PTB CORRIDOR.

THROUGH THIS EVE...DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO NR LAKE
ERIE W/ TRAILING CDFNT EXITING THE MTNS. TOR WATCH OUT UNTIL
00Z/28 FOR FA ALG-E OF I 95. DEWPTS ARE RISEN INTO THE L/M70S AND
ARE SLOLY TURNING MORE SSE FM CNTRL VA ON SSE AS WARM FRONT CONTS
ITS PUSH N. THREAT EXISTS CONTD PTNTL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
IN WARM SECTOR INVOF/S OF WARM FRONT (POSSIBLE TORNADOES)...WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING

THERE IS A CONTINUED CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH ADDITIONAL AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL. HWVR...A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...SO LOCAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT
ANTICIPATED.

SHWRS/TSTMS TAPER OFF THEN END W-E AFT MDNGT AS CDFNT PUSHES TO
THE CST AND OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S NW TO THE L70S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST EARLY
SUN...OTW...SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SW
(AND GUSTY) DURING SUN. (BECOMING) SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY W/ HI TEMPS
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE M/U80S.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE FA SUN NIGHT...THEN
WEAKENS OFFSHORE MON. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ON MON. FOR NOW...KEEPING POPS BELOW 15%...AND SKY CONDITIONS
AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS SUN NGT FROM THE UPR 50S ALONG/WEST
OF I-95 IN VA TO THE LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS MON AGAIN
IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

NEXT CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...HAVE ADDED 20-30% (HIGHEST
WNW PORTION) FOR AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S TO L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
+PNA RESULTS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUES NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WEDS. TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT-
WEDS...STALLING OVER THE REGION WEDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. PERTURBATIONS PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THRU THE
PERIOD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FORECAST WITH PWATS 1.8 INCHES TO 2.0
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE RESULT WILL BE DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
RETAINED 30-40 PCT POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS AOB
20 PCT LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. COMBINATION OF
SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 14-18C WILL
RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90. SLIGHT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE FRONT NWD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN RETURN FLOW. WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TSTMS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGH THE AFTN AND LATE EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND
WATERSPOUTS THE MAIN THREATS. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THRU THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS VIC OF NERN OH. LOW
PRESSURE RE-ORGANIZES IN THE VIC OF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
LIFTING NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WINDS
BECOME SLY TONIGHT...REMAINING 15 TO 20 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS). AS A
RESULT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE ALL WATERS. THE WIND BECOMES SW
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN W BY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 20KT
OVER THE BAY/OCEAN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS/WAVES 4-5FT/3-4FT. THE WIND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUN EVENING. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RAISED CSTL FLOOD ADVSRY FOR AREAS ALG CHES BAY...AT LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD...FOR ANOMALIES RISING TO 1-1.5
FT ABV NORMAL TNGT. INCRSG SSE WNDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT
THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE XPCD TO BUILD UP WATER INVOF CNTRL CHES
BAY. CURRENT ANOMALIES AVGG ABT 1 FT ABV NRML...AND XPCD TO INCRS
INTO TNGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR VAZ077.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-
     652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-281830-
MARYLAND BEACHES-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 364 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ637-MDZ024-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ064-075-076-078>090-092-093-
095>098-511>525-281830-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
INLAND WORCESTER-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
CAROLINE-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-WESTERN HANOVER-
EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-
WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 364 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-060>062-065>069-509-510-281830-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>023-VAZ077-281830-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-NORTHUMBERLAND-
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...TORNADO WATCH 364 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION... HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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