Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WILL INCLUDE SVR WORDING THIS EVE...DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IN
UPDATED FCST ACRS CNTRL/SRN/SE VA AND NE NC DUE TO SPC UPDATING TO
EHNANCED RISK SVR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DISSECTING NW-SE ACRS THE FA (FM ABT
LKU-ORF). ISOLD TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NR THE BNDRY FM ABT
RIC-PTB TO ORF. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP THROUGH
ABT 22-23Z/25..OTRW VRB CLDNS-MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CONTG TO MONITOR REMNANT S/W (FM LATE LAST NGTS/ERY THIS MRNGS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT TRACKED THROUGH CNTRL OH VLY). DECENT SFC
PRES FALLS INVOF MTNS ATTM...AND BULK SHEAR TO CONT TO INCRS
INTO THE EVE AS S/W ALOFT-SFC LO PRES MOVES SE TWD FA. CONTD
CONCERN OVR DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS ACRS
WCNTRL VA AFT 22-23Z/25 WHICH CONTS ESE NR/S OF THE WARM FRONT (IN
GENTLE NW FLO ALOFT) - PRIMARILY NR/ALG I 64 CORRIDOR ON S. HRRR
REF RMNS CONSISTENT W/ THIS DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION...REACHING SE VA/NE NC BY MDNGT. BOWING CONVECTIVE
LINES...W/ DAMAGING WNDS THE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE
HAIL...AND GIVEN THE INCRSD PWATS TDA...LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ARE
PSBL.

ANY CONVECTION TO WANE/DIMINISH AFT MDNGT...BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES MOVES OFF THE NRN DELMARVA CST FRI MRNG. THIS ALLOWS
THE FRNTL BNDRY TO DRIFT S AS A WK CDFNT...SETTLING INVOF SRN VA
IN THE AFTN/EVE...THEN ONLY DRIFT S A LTL MORE TO ALG THE NC/VA
BORDER FRI NGT. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING THRU 00Z
SAT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND WHERE THE FRNT IS...AMT OF CLDNS AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SRN OF VA/NE NC WILL BE IN WRM SECTOR
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE AOA 90F...WHILE READINGS STAY IN THE 80-85F
DEGREE RANGE ACRS NRN MOST COUNTIES.

SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE OH VLY FRI
NGT INTO SAT WILL LEAD TO SFC LO PRES TRACKING BY NW OF THE FA
ALG WITH A TRAILING CDFRNTL PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MSTR AHEAD AND WITH
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AVBL INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A WET PD W/
WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS ALG W/ LCLLY HVY RNFL. 1-2 INCH QPF PSBL.
LO TEMPS FRI NGT IN THE L/M70S. A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST SAT ALL
BASED ON TRIPLE PT SFC LO PRES TRACK/CLDS AND PCPN. SERN AREAS MAY
STAY IN WARM SCTR ALLOWING READINGS TO RISE INTO THE U80S/ARND 90F
WHILE NR AREAS RMN ARND 80F.

MDT SFC LO PRES TRACKING NE INVOF ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY SAT NGT INTO
SUN PUSHES ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT OFF THE NE/MDATLC CSTS. CONTG CHCS
FOR SHRAS/TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN GRADUALLY WANING BY SUN MRNG FM W-E
ACRS THE FA. MOST OF SUN XPCD TO BE DRY W/ CLEARING...AND TEMPS NR
SEASONABLE LVLS. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE L/M60S NW TO THE L70S NR
THE CST. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE M/U80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS. DRY WX TO START OFF THE PERIOD SUN NIGHT AND
MON BEHIND A COLD FRNT PUSHING OFFSHORE. HI TEMPS MON IN THE MID TO
UPR 80S. UPR-LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS TOWARDS THE MID ATLC TUE...AND
WITH A LEE TROF INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS IN
THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. EXPECT TYPICAL CHANCES (20-30%) OF
AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS WED AND THU WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PASSING
THRU THE MID ATLC AND DEWPTS IN THE UPR 60S. TEMPS AGAIN MAX OUT IN
THE UPR 80S TO NR 90.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SCT TSTMS TO THE AREA. TSTMS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS AND MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
WILL UPDATE TAFS FOR ANY TSTMS AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER AND
TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED. A COLD FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE
SOUTH SOMETIME FRIDAY BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SITES IN THE MORNING SHIFTING WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SOME
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WHICH IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND SCT TSTMS ARE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT
RESULTING IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER THROUGH 4 AM EDT
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. INCREASED WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE NEED FOR SCA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
459 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522-262100-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX-ACCOMACK-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
459 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN NECK
OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-262100-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
459 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ633-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>084-086>090-092-
093-095>098-100-509>520-523>525-262100-
CURRITUCK SOUND-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-
CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
NORTHAMPTON VA-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-
EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-
WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
459 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CURRITUCK SOUND...COASTAL
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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