Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
912 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT DISSIPATES MONDAY...WITH HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS TD BILL TRACKING ENE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A
CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF BILL HAS
SUPPRESSED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY VERY ISO ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS ~2500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA ALONG WITH 30-35KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR.

HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE AND
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS A LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL GIVEN FREEZING
LEVEL AOA 15 KFT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS.

FOLLOWED A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 20/12Z NAM/REGIONAL CMC/HI-RES
ARW FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOWS
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONGEALING ALONG THE ZONE OF CONFLUENCE...AND
PASSING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...AND FARTHER
E BETWEEN 03-09Z. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT THE SYSTEM IS
RATHER PROGRESSIVE. HENCE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST POPS EXTEND FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE ERN
SHORE...WITH THE LOWEST OVER COASTAL NE NC. QPF ON AVERAGE RANGES
FROM 1-2 IN ACROSS THE FAR N...TO ~0.25 IN OVER THE FAR
SE...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT. OTHERWISE...A WARM HUMID NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER TC WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. AFTER A CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING (ESPECIALLY OVER ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA)...THE SKY SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BEFORE NOON. DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW AND
DEEP MIXING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20-22C...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING AT LEAST THE MID 90S INLAND...WITH EVEN
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TSTM POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS OVER THE
AREA MONDAY MORE IN THE FORM OF A LEE-TROUGH. A 20% POP WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...AND OVER NE
NC FOR ANY SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
HIGHER. HIGHS WILL BE HOT...INTO THE MID 90S INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S.
AFTN MIXING WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS SO HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY CAPPED AT 100-104 F. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 21-24C PER
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 F INLAND AND 90-95 F AT THE COAST. LIKE MONDAY...APPEARS
SLIGHTLY DRIER W/ AFTN MIXING AND WNW FLOW SO HEAT INDICES MAY
HOLD IN THE 100-104 F RANGE MOST AREAS. WILL MENTION THIS IN
HWO...IF DEW POINTS DO NOT MIX OUT THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN A WNW FLO ALOFT INTO SAT
MORNG...THEN WSW DURING SAT. HOT AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WED AND THU...THEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRI
AND SAT. LEANING CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROFS/FRONTS AFFECTING THE REGION. ONE
FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA AND S OF THE CWA TUE NGT INTO WED
MORNG...WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVNG ACRS THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI
AFTN. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA SAT
AFTN/EVENG. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT (20%) TO CHC (40%) POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OUTSIDE OF PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY A PARTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO
MID 90S WED AND THU...IN THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S FRI...AND IN THE
80S SAT. LOWS IN THE 70S WED MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT. ALL TAFS SITES WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS GREATER
THAN 35KT UP TO 5OKT...LEAST LIKELY AT KECG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. HAVE
MENTIONED PRECIP AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS CONTINUING AFTER
THE SEVERE LINE MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST. NAM GUIDANCE
ALSO PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT WITH S-SE FLOW RESULTING IN STRATUS.

OUTLOOK...REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ENEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION
SUNDAY...WITH VFR RETURNING ALL TERMINALS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
AND VFR EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA'S IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CHES BAY FM THIS EVENG THRU SUN
AFTN...DUE TO SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AS A
RESULT OF THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE REMNANT LO FM TROPICAL
CYCLONE BILL. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN TWO CSTL ZNS FM VERY LATE
TNGT THRU SUN AFTN...DUE TO THE STRONGER SSW CAUSING SEAS TO BLD
TO NEAR 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AND SHORT
LIVED OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND LOWER JAMES...SO HAVE HELD OFF
ON HEADLINES THERE. SFC LO/TROF WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SUN AFTN...WITH
SW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT SUN AFTN AND EVENG. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE SUN AFTN...DROPPING BELOW 5 FT LATE. SFC TROF/WEAK FRONT
SLIDES OFF THE CST MON MORNG...WITH NNW WINDS 5 TO 15
KT...BECOMING ENE 5 TO 10 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
AREA. SSW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT THEN DROPS S OF THE REGION LATE TUE NGT
AND WED MORNG. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100-211945-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>098-509>525-211945-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-
EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-
WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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