Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED OFF THE VIRGINIA ATLANTIC
COAST EXTENDING THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION IN FLAT WLY FLOW ALOFT.
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WILL HELP STORM INITIATION BUT STRONGEST
STORMS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED.
THE MAIN IMPACT/THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...COMING TO AN END ALONG
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LIMITED MAX HEATING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL WILL STREAM INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DUE TO
THE PERSISTENTLY FLAT WLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL...AFTN/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH BRIEF DRY
PERIODS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING) AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE TSTORMS IS LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF
FORCING AND/OR FRONTAL FEATURES TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LIFT.

MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ON SUNDAY.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE AS
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND THEN SLIP JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PLACING
THE REGION IN A GENERAL NW UPPER FLOW IN THE LONG TERM. OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES TRACK FROM NW TO SE IN THE UPPER FLOW LATE MONDAY AND
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH THE LATEST MODELS STALLING THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING OF ANY S/W IMPULSES ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
RATHER PROBLEMATIC ATTM BUT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA...SOUTHEAST VA AND NC. UPSHOT WILL
BE TO CONTINUE CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGES
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN LESS CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND GRADUALLY BUILDING HEAT.

SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES MONDAY WITH HIGHS 85-90 ALONG THE COAST WITH
90-95 INLAND. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT THAT HAD BEEN SLIDING NORTH HAS CLEARED THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS. WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...CU IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST SHOWN SOME SCT/BKN CU AT THE TAF SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...OUT SIDE OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK
CLOUDS FLOATING THROUGH THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH OVER PA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO
SINK SOUTHWARD AND THIS COULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT RIGHT NOW EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...PUTTING THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH REDUCED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. ON
SUNDAY...THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY S TO SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRI BEFORE TURNING TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FRI EVENING. THE PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE REMNANT OF BILL TRACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTER RATHER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTH WINDS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GRAD WEAKENS SOME MONDAY EXPECT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE SW
WINDS OF 15 KT OR GRATER MAY PERSIST UNTIL TUE MORNING.

WAVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE BAY WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE EXPECTED.
SEAS START TO BUILD SOME LATE SATURDAY AND MORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SW WINDS. WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO
3 FT OVER THE BAY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...BMD/DAP
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JAO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

ANZ637-MDZ021>025-NCZ017-102-VAZ048-060>062-064-066>069-075>078-
080>086-088>090-095-098>100-509>525-191930-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-DORCHESTER-
WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-INLAND CURRITUCK-
OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-
CAROLINE-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-
WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-WESTERN HENRICO-
EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-
WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
317 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ065-079-087-092-093-096-097-191930-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-MECKLENBURG-BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
317 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     WALL CLOUD       TAPPAHANNOCK            37.92N  76.87W
06/18/2015                   ESSEX              VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            WALL CLOUD SEEN WITH FUNNEL CLOUD TO THE EAST OF
            TAPPAHNNOCK

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1500902

LALEXAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
936 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     TORNADO          1 SE SHARPS             37.83N  76.69W
06/18/2015                   RICHMOND           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED JUST SOUTHEAST OF SHARPS.
            TRAINED SPOTTER WAS ON HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF TAPPAHANNOCK
            LOOKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RIVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1500903

JO

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