Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING...AND
RE-DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~996 MB SURFACE LOW RE-
ORGANIZING ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AS OF 1430Z...WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A WARM FRONT HAS
PUSHED N THE CWA. RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS SE PORTIONS WITH
AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AND SOME MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL EVENT TOTAL
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25" NW TO 0.50-0.75" SE.
BY 18Z...SHOULD SEE BULK OF PRECIP SHIFT TO THE COAST AS AREAS W
OF I-95 BEGIN TO DRY OUT (ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST NOON. AFTER 18Z...POPS ALONG THE COAST QUICKLY
DROP OFF TO 20-30% AND AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL GENLY BE DRY. THE
DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH INTERIOR VA/NC BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WARM...AND CAA WILL
LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...SO HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F FAR NW (AND REMAIN WELL BELOW THIS UNTIL THE
AFTN CLEARING)...TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW WIND WILL DEVELOP AS
CLEARING/DRYING ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING AROUND 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. A WIND ADSY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE COUNTIES...AS NAM/GFS
SHOW 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 14-16 MB OVER PA FROM 18-00Z. THIS
WILL HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE ON OUR NE ZONES CLOSEST TO THESE
LARGE PRESSURE RISES. WIND GUSTS HERE WILL BE 40-50 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER NW FLOW PREVAILS MONDAY NIGHT...AND BACKS TO WESTERLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AND ASSOCIATED CAA)
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH LOCATING ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID TEENS NW...TO LOW 20S SE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S NW...TO
LOW 40S SW.

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LARGELY SITUATED BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL NRN
STREAM FLOW AND A MOIST SRN STREAM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SKY COVER AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE 25-30...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 FROM THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE...AND
THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN AND
TANGIBLE WEATHER DURING THE DAYS 4-7 PERIOD. OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO BIG PRECIP EVENTS IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH FRONTAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY (GFS IS COLDER
BUT ALSO A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED WITH PRECIP). EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...EITHER RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO BE PRODUCED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER BRIEF COLD
SURGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

ANOTHER POLAR/ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS DO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH REGARD TO WHERE THE
WAVE WILL DEVELOP...AND THEREFORE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION MIGHT
IMPACT THE CWA DURING THAT TIME. GFS IS FURTHER WEST AND
WARMER...WITH ECMWF...AS IT HAS FOR THE LAST 1-2 MONTHS...SUGGESTING
A WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HAVE GONE IN BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS...WITH CHC
OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND CAPPED POPS AT 40 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER WRN VA/ERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS DEPICTING AN AREA OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP OVER
THE SE LOCAL AREA. PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL BACK IN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR...WITH DECKS GENERALLY 1000 TO
2500 FT AGL. OCCASIONAL IFR OBS OBSERVED...BUT HAS NOT IMPACTED THE
TAF SITES YET. CIGS GENERALLY VFR IN LIGHT RAIN...FALLING TO 5 MILES
AT TIMES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS...BUT LACK OF IFR OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING LOWERS
CONFIDENCE. WITH SLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD
LAYER ALSO HELPING PREVENT IFR CONDITIONS. HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THE MOST PRONE AIRPORTS OF KSBY AND KPHF.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEAR EXISTS THIS MORNING KRIC EWD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM. WINDS BACK TO THE NW POST FRONTAL...INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ALL TAF SITES. STRONG NW WINDS
PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH AOB 10 KT EARLY TUES MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. SKC OVERNIGHT.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. FROZEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. DRYING THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW OVER WRN PA WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN SLY SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WAVES HAVE INCREASED TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3 TO 4
FT. SLY SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILD TO 4-7 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT...THIS MORNING WITH WAVES 3-4
FT. WINDS BECOME WLY POST FRONTAL...THEN NW LATE TODAY. A BRIEF LULL
IN SPEEDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONG SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
CAA POST FRONTAL IN TANDEM WITH WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE
WATER IN THE 40-50KT RANGE WILL PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS OVER ALL
WATERS LATE TODAY. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND PRESSURE
RISES/FALLS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE RIVERS AND SOUND IN THE GALE
HEADLINES. SEAS BUILD TO 6-10 FT (HIGHEST 20 NM OUT) LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. WAVES BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE LOWER
JAMES. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...LIKELY RESULTING IN ONLY A
FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS AFTER THE GALES END. SEAS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...DROPPING TO 4-6 FT EARLY TUES MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS AIR
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS TUES...WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT TUES AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUES NIGHT-WEDS...BUT SWLY WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 KT LATE WEDS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDS NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ075>078-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/WRS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
612 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>074-079>098-031115-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
612 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-VAZ075>078-099-100-031115-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
612 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BROWN

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