Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OPEN CELLULAR CONVECTION INDICATED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
THIS AFTN INVOF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH (LOCATED OVER CNTRL VA) AND
SFC COLD FRONT (LOCATED OVER WRN VA)...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD
SWATH OF CLOUDS/STRATIFORM PRECIP LOCATED ACROSS NC WHERE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS POSITIONED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. DECENT
CLEARING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY HAS SUFFICIENTLY
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
BTWN THE TROUGH AND FRONT THIS AFTN. STORM STRUCTURE CONSISTS OF
BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS ATTM BUT WILL FILL IN AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. SFC AND MU CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH SFC
LAPSE RATES AND LIFTED INDICES BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THUS
EXPECT TSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. PWATS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.00 INCHES IN REALITY VS
MODEL DATA THAT IS A TAD HIGH AROUND 2.30 INCHES. EITHER WAY...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND AVAILABLE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONGER
STORM CORES. BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 0-6KM ARE AVERAGING 30KT
DURING THE FROPA AND STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS W-NW AT 30-40KT WHICH
INDICATES ADEQUATE STORM MOVEMENT TO REDUCE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR LOOPS. WV IMAGERY AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MID- LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT
WHICH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND EXIT THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 1000 PM TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES FOLLOWING SUIT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER FAR SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC WED
MORNING...BUT SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SHUNTS THE STALLED SFC FRONT
FARTHER SWD BY WED AFTN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRI. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A MORE
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
WED-FRI (ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
N-E/ONSHORE WINDS). LOWS IN THE 60S WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT (SLIGHTLY
WARMER AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WX CONDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEST WEEK
WITH THE GFS WORKING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS EVERYTHING TO THE NORTH AND CONDITIONS DRY. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A DRY SOLUTION. EXPECT UPR 80S BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH LO
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S MOST SPOTS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSTM EITHER DAY WITH AN UPR- LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT LACKING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT SHRAS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRNT. PREVAILED THE RAIN BUT WENT WITH A VCTS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER BEING A BIT LWR AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD. CONDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...BUT MVFR/IFR IS PSBL WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND FOLLOWING THE PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN ENDS FM W
TO E THIS EVENG/ERLY OVRNGT. OTWS...GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN BCM
NWLY BY LATE TNGT/WED MORNG AS THE FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. DRY WX
RETURNS WED AND CONTINUES THRU THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DOMINATING OVER THE WATERS AND BAY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 18 KT OVER THE BAY THEREFORE THE SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELED. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SURGE OF SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS OVER THE BAY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NEAR
RICHMOND TO SOUTH HILL WAS RAPIDLY PUSHING ESE AND WILL REACH THE
BAY AND COAST BY 7 TO 8 PM. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...CURRITUCK SOUND AND NC COASTAL WATERS WAS
GENERATING GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FILL IN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN SHORE. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST
MOVING OFFSHORE BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT AND MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE NW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NW WINDS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORN BUT DUE TO WEAK CAA...NOT EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS POST- FRONTAL. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS 10
TO 15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE COMING WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (OR THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT). ALL LOCATION WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS WITH ONLY BISHOPS HEAD COMING WITHIN A FEW THENTH OF A
FOOT OF MINOR FLOODING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-121945-
MARYLAND BEACHES-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-121945-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-NORTHAMPTON NC-
HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-
EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-
WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEROSA

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