Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER
THE SRN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY
1-4 INCHES...WILL BE IN HYDER DUE TO COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES. FARTHER N OVER SRN INTERIOR AK AND THE YUKON
TERRITORY...UPPER VORT STREAMER IS SHIFTING SSE. THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND THUS THE NRN PANHANDLE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS IT ENTERS THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKEST OVER SRN AREAS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. MEANWHILE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FROM
PETERSBURG TO SITKA NWD WILL FAVOR LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE FOR WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS
/SUCH AS GUSTAVUS AND MENDENHALL VALLEY/.

REGARDING WINDS...GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE ZONES.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER NWRN CANADA LATE
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD TOWARD SKAGWAY.
THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NRN
LYNN CANAL BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE TO GALE
BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD. STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON IN
SKAGWAY.

NUDGED PRESSURE GRIDS TOWARD THE NAM 12Z WED THROUGH 00Z THU. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP AND QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON WIND EVENT FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH FORM
THE ARCTIC SLOPE REGION HEADED SOUTHEAST. IT IS SPREADING A COLD DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO NORTHWEST CANADA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE PLUMMETING TO BETWEEN -20 AND -28 C.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK TO THE POINT WERE I BELIEVE THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS.

AM EXPECTING STORM FORCE WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND GALES WITH STORM
GUSTS FOR ADJACENT AREAS. MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS TO IMPACT THE
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO ISSUING A
WATCH RIGHT NOW FOR THE STRONG WINDS. ALSO WITH STRONG WINDS THE
COLDER AIR WITH IT WILL INCREASE THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT.

MEANWHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
DEALING WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG DIXON ENTRANCE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE HAIDA GWAII
REGION LATE THURSDAY WILL BE AIDING IN TIGHTENING UP THE WIND
GRADIENTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

MODEL TRYING TO WORK ON THE LOW TRACKS FOR THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AND OR MOISTURE TRYING
TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE AS WELL. WITH THE STRONG WIND AND OFF SHORE
INFLUENCE HAVE TRIED TO GO A DRIER ROUTE AT THE MOMENT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WHILE GOOD EARLY LOWERS TO AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-031-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

GARNER/BEZENEK

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