Storm Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BAND HAS NEARLY MOVED EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT WAS TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AREA TODAY. SNOW FELL MOST THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT
ENDED IN THE YAKUTAT AREA BEFORE NOON AND HAS STARTED TO TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SHOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE TO SEE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THINK THAT THESE WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARDS YAKUTAT THIS EVENING.

WINDS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
THAT SKAGWAY IS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. SO HAVE HOISTED A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE. THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AROUND THE NEW SNOW REDUCING THE
VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

THE LAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK. PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THRU EARLY IN
THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL SET UP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF/RIDGE COMBO
OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN NOAM. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARM UP OVER THE AREA
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF STRONG FRONTS TO DEAL WITH DURING THIS TIME...KEEPING IT
ON THE WET SIDE AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN INTO THE ERN GULF BY MON
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL
SPLIT...WITH A STRONG VORT DIGGING SE TOWARD SW OF HAIDA
GWAII...AND A WEAKER VORT LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE NE GULF. THIS
WILL CAUSE FRONT TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF MON NIGHT AND
TUE. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE...THEN WENT WITH MAINLY LATEST WPC FOR TUE NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SUN NIGHT...STILL SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
WITH WEAK TROF MOVING THRU. MOST OF THIS WILL BE OVER THE NW HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN AREAS.

FOR MON-TUE NIGHT...STEADIER PRECIP WILL MOVE IN WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO THE ERN GULF AND NRN OUTER COAST MON MORNING THEN TRY
TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR E THE PRECIP WILL GET. THINK MOST
AREAS W OF LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT WILL GET INTO THE
PRECIP...WITH THE AREA JUST E OF THERE LIKELY GETTING INTO IT.
THE FAR SERN AREA WILL HAVE LEAST THREAT FOR PRECIP FROM THIS
FRONT. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND PARTS OF THE
INNER CHANNELS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
FRONT WEAKENS TUE. ALSO AS FRONT WEAKENS...THE PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THE WARMEST AIR WILL HANG BACK
OVER THE GULF AND OUTER COAST...WHILE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN
COOLER. MAY SEE DECENT AMOUNTS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TUE
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO COOL
OFF MORE THEN AS WELL.

FOR WED ONWARD...WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SETTLING INTO THE
TROF/RIDGE COUPLET OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN NOAM...THREAT WILL
INCREASE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPS. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES IN THIS PATTERN...THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT BEFORE PINPOINTING LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN THOUGH.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-034>036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043-053.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT

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