Storm Warning 61, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS STILL MOVING NORTH TO
JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BAND ARCS OUT TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN HAIDA
GWAII. A TRIPLE POINT LOW THERE WILL BE HEADED INLAND AROUND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE LOW WILL THEN START TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.

GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING TO 40 TO 45 KT WITH SOME AREAS OF
HIGHER GUSTS WITH IT. LOOK FOR EASTERLY GALES OUT OF CROSS SOUND
TONIGHT AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG
STEPHENS PASSAGE AND FREDERICK SOUND TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE PROMPTED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FRONT
CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTH TO DIXON ENTRANCE FOR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

THERE ARE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND IN THE
HAINES REGION WITH A CONTINUE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW PULLING THE
COOLER DRIER AIR IN FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. AS A RESULT THINK THAT
AREA MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SNOW FALL ACROSS
THE CHILKAT VALLEY. THE SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY IS IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH
RANGE WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NEAR THE BORDER.

SHOULD HAVE SOME WIND SHEAR AT AIRPORTS DUE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THE BATTLE BETWEEN WARM AND COLD AIR IN THE PANHANDLE
REACHES A STALEMATE AS NEITHER WARM NOR COLD AIR ADVECTION
BECOME DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL PATTERN STAYS
MOSTLY THE SAME WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM ORIENTED IN A WEST TO
EAST DIRECTION AIMED AT SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
FEW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
STORMY WEATHER PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE IN
THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE PUSHING INTO CANADA AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE TAKING OVER. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW LATE THU NIGHT AS
THE MAIN LOW HEADS TOWARD HAIDA GWAII, WILL START TO DRY OUT THE
PANHANDLE A LITTLE BIT. FOR PRECIP TYPE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE RAIN. ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS SHOWERS
DIMINISH.

NEXT MAJOR FRONT SHOWS UP SAT INTO SUN BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS
TO THE GULF AND MORE PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE. SOME MINOR ISSUES
BETWEEN MODELS ON STRUCTURE WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING IN THE SE GULF IN SOME MODELS. ALSO SOME
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NCEP MODELS SUGGESTING A FASTER TIMING THEN
THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS. ELECTED TO REMAIN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS TODAY WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE, RAIN SNOW LINE MOVES NORTH A LITTLE AS THIS FRONT
BRINGS A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN WITH IT. HOWEVER WITH A MORE
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE, PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NORTHERLY IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE REINFORCING THE COOL AIR THAT REMAINS IN THE AREA.
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ,NORTH OF ANGOON, WILL MAINLY REMAIN AT LEAST A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT, WESTERLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS REMAINS THE NORM FOR
LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE STILL
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BUT CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS NOT THAT GREAT BETWEEN THE MODELS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS OF RAIN AND SNOW REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. IN THE EXTREME LONG RANGE, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
DECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK IN THE WORKS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
COLD AIR MASS DROPS SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS FEATURE TO SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022-023-027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL

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