Storm Warning 51, NWS Juneau, AK

300 
FZAK67 PAJK 131247
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-140100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE NE GULF WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. 

$$

PKZ310-140100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
TO 32 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION.
.TONIGHT...W WIND TO 35 KT...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS OF SE AK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. USED
BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...TSTM
POTENTIAL...WINDS...AND SEAS OVER THE GULF. RIGHT NOW...SNOW IS
FALLING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREA ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BASED ON WEBCAMS...THE SNOW IS FAIRLY HEAVY THERE.
APPEARS THAT SNOW IS ALSO FALLING NEAR HYDER BUT IS DIFFICULT TO
SEE EXACTLY HOW HEAVY IT IS OR HOW MUCH HAS FALLEN ON THE WEBCAMS
THERE. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
AREA AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HYDER...BOTH THROUGH
NOON. THINK ANOTHER 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE WARNING
AREA AND ANOTHER 3 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMASS OVER THE GULF IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
250-300 J/KG BASED ON NAM. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAINLY NEAR THE CLUSTER OF CELLS OVER THE NE GULF. THINK AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME
TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OVER THE GULF AND GET ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COAST. KEPT AREA OF TSTMS AS IS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE LOCALLY HIGH WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND 15Z...BUT SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS WITH SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GULF
TODAY...S OF THE LOW CENTER. WITH THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING
THOUGH...THINK THOSE WILL DROP TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY TONIGHT.

THE SEAS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AS LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BUILT SEAS UP SOMEWHAT. THEY
WERE AS HIGH AS 45 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND SEAS TO 40 FEET WILL
OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TODAY. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. EVEN OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF...SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER 15 FT ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
DROP BELOW THAT LEVEL NEAR BUOY 46082 LATE TONIGHT. OCEAN
ENTRANCES TO THE INNER CHANNELS AND YAKUTAT BAY WILL SEE LARGE
SEAS GET IN AS WELL...WITH UP TO 28 FT SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR CAPE
DECISION...AND UP TO 17 FT IN YAKUTAT BAY.

.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS.

LARGE SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW
GOING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN
THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH. THE STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM IS SUGGESTING IT WILL
GENERATE A WEAK LOW AT THE SURFACE AS IT DOES SO. BASED UPON THIS
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WOULD OCCUR WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
MORE BY LATER SHIFTS. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW PUSH INLAND
THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERLY WIND
REGIME WILL TAKE OVER AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAA WITH
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -7
TO -9 ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASED UPON THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
THINK THIS HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS AT SEA LEVEL OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE MORE OF A COLD AIR PUSH INTO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS LOW AS -15 C OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
THE FIRST TRUE WINTER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ALONG WITH THIS COLD AIR NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DRY THINGS OUT MONDAY
AND THROUGH MID WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN THIS SO
LOWERED POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TAKU WIND EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IS
STILL 5 DAYS OUT BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. AFTER MID
WEEK MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE NEXT
FRONT WOULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECWMF FOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECWMF WAS BLENDED WITH INHERITED
GRIDS FROM DAY 4 ONWARD. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ023.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-033>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-032-053.

&&

RWT/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             38 WNW HAINES           59.45N 136.44W
11/12/2015  E14.0 INCH                          AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN THE MORNING, AFTER
            OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL OF 12 INCHES. MEASURED AT US CUSTOMS
            STATION AT THE BORDER.

1130 AM     SNOW             6 NE SKAGWAY            59.54N 135.21W
11/12/2015  E8.5 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 5 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN THE MORNING AFTER
            OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL OF 3 INCHES. STORM TOTAL SNOW
            ACCUMULATION AROUND 8 TO 9 INCHES AT THE US CUSTOMS AT
            MILE 8 OF KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

&&

RCL