Storm Warning 41, NWS Juneau, AK

197 
FZAK52 PAJK 082324
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-091400-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH SAT. A
HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING
FRI...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE N OF CAPE SPENCER
FRI EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-091400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT
LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 65 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 90 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT BY LATE MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-091400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
80 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-091400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-091400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-091400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO
THE NORTH AND IS HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
ABOUT THIS LOW IS LARGE...SO MUCH SO THAT THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF WILL BE UNDER PREVAILING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REACH
GALE FORCE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH UP TO 40 KTS OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT FOR TOMORROW. ON THE INSIDE, HAVE KEPT WINDS
NORTHERLY OR EASTERLY EXCEPT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, SOUTHERN CHATHAM
STRAIT, AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF FREDERICK SOUND. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, THE FRONT SHOULD BE PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. EXPECT THOSE
WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WEST OF HAIDA GWAII
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTH, SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS. BLENDED TWP IMAGERY
INDICATING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
RELATED TO HURRICANE OHO. HAVE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SPREADING NORTH WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND,
BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR DETAILS, SEE BELOW. AFTER A WEEK OF BASICALLY DRY
WEATHER, RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE DOWN AND THE SURFACE LAYERS ARE A
LITTLE MORE DRY, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF THE RAINFALL TO INFILTRATE DOWN OR BE CARRIED AWAY BY
RIVERS WITHOUT FLOODING CONCERNS. MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE, SO HYDROLOGY WILL BECOME A CONCERN LATER ON THIS
WEEK.

USED NAM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND. POP AND QPF FROM HIGH
AND LOW RESOLUTION NAM WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM GFS. TEMPS ADJUSTED
PER GFS MOS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO HURRICANE
OHO...CURRENTLY WELL NE OF HAWAII. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL TRANSITION TO A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE E GULF FRI. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WERE ALL
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM IN THE 950-960 MB RANGE OVER THE E GULF. 12Z NAM
WAS SOMEWHAT WEAKER...BUT 18Z RUN CAME IN STRONGER AND CLOSER TO
THE OTHER MODELS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 FOR FRI MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. I AM
CONCERNED THAT THE TRACK COULD DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
W...WHICH WOULD INCREASE HIGH WIND THREAT TO ZONES 23 THRU 26 FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IN OTHER ZONES AS
NEEDED...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST FRI AFTERNOON. KEPT SE GULF MARINE WINDS
LIMITED TO 60 KT TO START STRONG UPWARD TREND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANCE TO BRING A PERIOD OF 65+ KT
WINDS ON E SIDE OF LOW TRACK.

RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL DUE TO ITS
TROPICAL ORIGINS. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STREAMS WILL
NOT REACH FLOOD LEVELS OR ARE MUDSLIDES EXPECTED DUE TO THE
GROUND NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED DURING THE EVENT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FROM THE PRECEDING SYSTEMS
THOUGH AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAIN FROM THEM PLUS THE
RAINFALL WITH THE FRI SYSTEM TO CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OR MUDSLIDES.

FURTHER OUT...BASICALLY USES THE LATEST WPC FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SUN NIGHT AND
MON...BUT MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TRACK AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE A FACTOR FOR
TOMORROW, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW MVMC. 5000FT
WINDS UP TO 50 KTS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. STRONG WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR ON
TAKEOFF AND LANDING FOR ALL BUT THE HEAVY IRON ON THURSDAY. WIND
GUST AND WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AND BECOMING
DANGEROUS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OHO
TRACK NORTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT

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