Storm Warning 40, NWS Juneau, AK

418 
FZAK67 PAJK 110030 CCA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-111400-
430 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY AND CURVE NW TOWARD CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-111400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
430 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015 

CORRECTED SUNDAY NIGHT

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SOUTHERN HALF...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. NORTHERN HALF...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NORTHERN HALF...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S
GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SOUTHERN HALF...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

144 
FZAK67 PAJK 110416 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
816 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-112230-
816 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY AND CURVE NW TOWARD CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-112230-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
816 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SOUTHERN HALF...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. NORTHERN HALF...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NORTHERN HALF...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S
GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SOUTHERN HALF...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LATE.
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

948 
FZAK67 PAJK 111141
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-120100-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY AND CURVE NW TOWARD CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTHERN HALF...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN HALF...SE WIND
25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NORTHERN HALF...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT LATE.
SOUTHERN HALF...SW 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

916 
FZAK67 PAJK 111929 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-120100-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY AND CURVE NW TOWARD CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1127 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTHERN HALF...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN HALF...SE WIND
25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...NORTHERN HALF...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT LATE.
SOUTHERN HALF...SW 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

161 
FZAK67 PAJK 112239
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-121400-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CURVE NW TOWARD
CAPE SUCKLING WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E PORTION...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT. W PORTION...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF FOR SUNDAY, AND THEN WILL SLOWLY CURVE NORTHWEST
ON A TRACK TOWARD CAPE SUCKLING INTO MONDAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
IMPRESSIVE...ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 80 KT. ONE DIFFERENCE IN THIS
STORM AND THE STORM ON FRIDAY SEEMS TO BE THE TIGHT GRADIENTS BY
ALL MODELS IN THE SURFACE FIELD OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS SUPPORTS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...NOT ONLY
SKAGWAY CONFIDENCE BUILDING FOR YAKUTAT. AS BOTH THE ECWMF AND GEM
TRACK THE STORM FARTHER FROM COAST THAN THE LAST...THE STORM FORCE
WINDS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS...FIRST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AND THEN BECOMING EAST. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 23 AND 28 WERE CANCELLED AND REPLACED
WITH WIND GUSTS LESS THAN 60 MPH NEEDED FOR A WARNING. WESTERN
PRINCE OF WALES WAS UPGRADED FROM A HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. WE THINK THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL BE
MID-DAY SUNDAY...BUT EXTENDED THIS OUT TO 7 PM JUST IN CASE THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WERE MORE CORRECT. GALES WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN WATERS NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL INSIDE CHANNELS BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG GRADIENT
PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY BREEZY THROUGH THE INSIDE
CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF RAINFALL AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE STORM FORCE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
REACHING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO
INCH ON MONDAY.

DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES MAY REAPPEAR TONIGHT AS CLEARING SHOULD HELP RADIATIONAL
COOLING BEGIN EARLY AFTER SUNDOWN AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES UNIMPACTFUL...RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH SUNDAY. USED
GEM/ECWMF FOR WINDS/PRESSURE. RFC AND NAM WERE FAVORED FOR POP/QPF
MAINLY BECAUSE OF THEIR GREATER PRECISION OF HIGHER TERRAIN
FEATURES.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERY REGIME WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THIS COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS -32 TO -34 C AT 500 MB WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN POPS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER
SIDE HOWEVER EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WINDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT TIMES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS WINDING DOWN OVER
BARANOF ISLAND AND ANGOON BUT BEGINNING IN JUNEAU. NORTHERLIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CHANNELS WILL SWITCH SUDDENLY SOUTHEAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THUS SKAGWAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
TUESDAY. AND YAKUTAT AS THE LOW MANAGES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED GRIDS AS MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF FORECAST. DID USE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR
DAYS 5 THROUGH 8. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AFTER MID
WEEK WITH STORM MOVING INTO THE GULF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032.

&&

JWA/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

AKZ018>029-110815-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
332 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...

A DEVELOPING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL BRING
MORE RAIN TO THE ALREADY SATURATED PANHANDLE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
ON SUNDAY. 48 HR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING
RANGE FROM 1.25 INCHES TO NEARLY 3 INCHES. HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RECOVERING FROM RECENT RECORD
RAINFALL...BUT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH. FORECAST RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE MANY WATERWAYS TO RISE TO BANKFULL CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS...COMBINED WITH SATURATED
GROUND WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANT.