Storm Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

789 
FZAK52 PAJK 161936 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171345-
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN
CANADA.  

$$

PKZ041-171345-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-171345-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-171345-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-171345-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-171345-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1035 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AND BECOMING W 15 KT
LATE. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...W WIND TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO
12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

791 
FZAK52 PAJK 170032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. A NEW LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WED. 

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO
15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN IN
THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH WHILE A STORM IN
THE FAR WESTERN GULF PULLS A WARM AIR MASS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. DUE TO THE STORM IN THE FAR WESTERN
GULF...WINDS/SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH CONTINUED WARMING
TREND...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. PATCHY FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREQUENT SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE STORM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF ARRIVES NEAR COLD BAY BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NW CANADA AND EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
OF NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NORTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW. QPF VALUES NOTICEABLY INCREASE
AS THE FRONT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...INCLUDING YAKUTAT AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. USED A BLEND OF NAM
AND SREF FOR POPS. USED THE RFC AND NAM/SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE QPF
FIELDS. LEFT THE PRESSURE FILED AS INHERITED AND MADE A FEW FINE
TUNES OVER THE WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION BEGINS ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF THE ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY EVENING AND...YES...THAT IS JUST ABOUT
WHERE IT IS PROGGED AFTER OVER A WEEK FROM NOW ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH MEANS THE SOUTHEASTERN AK WEATHER WILL LIKELY NOT
UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERN PORTIONS APPEAR
TO BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SOME RAIN OUTBREAKS AND THOUGH THEY WILL
GET HIT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE ACTION GENERALLY. THREAT
OF SNOWFALL AT SEA LEVEL IS NIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
LONGER THAN THAT...WITH ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE
HAVING SOME SNOWFALL THREAT EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME CONCERN WITH THE
YAKUTAT AREA ANTICIPATED RAINFALL WHICH SHOULD REACH SEVERAL
INCHES DURING THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE POTENTIALLY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SPECIFICS...APPEARS LIKELY THAT TUES WILL BRING
REMNANTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF FRONTAL WAVE TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN EXCEPT POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER NEAR YAKUTAT. THEN ON WED A NEW LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE SOUTH...RELATIVELY WEAK IN STRENGTH....WITH PRECIP
SPREADING IN SOUTH-TO-NORTH. ALL GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW REMAINING
RELATIVELY WEAK AND FILLING IN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN COAST
THURSDAY...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY EXTEND RAINFALL
INTO FRIDAY BUT THE SYSTEM LOSES UPPER SUPPORT AT THAT POINT. IN
FACT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL ONLY GET TO SCA LEVELS
OVER MIDDLE/SOUTHERN COASTLINE ALONG WITH CROSS SOUND AS INNER
GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THIS WAVE. SOME THREAT OF
GALE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE DOES EXIST BRIEFLY OVER THE SOUTH. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER THOUGH...BY THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY ON DETAILS WITH THE IMBEDDED WAVES OVERALL...SO CHOSE TO
MIGRATE FROM AN EC/NAM ENSEMBLE ON DAYS 1-3 GRADUALLY TO WPC
GUIDANCE FOR LATE DAY 4 AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SO A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS...NONETHELESS THIS
ENSEMBLE APPROACH SHOWED A NEW LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE AREA ON LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AGAIN WITH THE DYNAMICS
CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST BUT ONSHORE FLOW CREATING EXTENSIVE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE. THEN THE WHOLE PROCESS
REPEATS ITSELF ON WPC GUIDANCE BY MONDAY. MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS
AVERAGE EARLY BUT BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES RAPIDLY BECAME SIGNIFICANT. ONE IMPORTANT GFS FEATURE
WORTH MENTIONING IS A SHARPER UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE BUILDING FROM LATE THURS INTO SUNDAY...IN CONTRAST TO
THE EC'S WEAKENING SHARP RIDGE A HALF DAY OR SO EARLIER. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND DURING THAT TRANSITION...PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...THE STORM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
GULF WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH ROUGH SEAS OF 17 FEET THIS EVENING...BUILDING
TO 23 FEET OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER THE
ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS FROM CAPE
EDGECUMBE NORTH TO CAPE SUCKLING LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN IMPROVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL DROP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DERIVED QPF VALUES SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
RAINFALL RATE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...INCLUDING
YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVED
WATER LEVEL FOR SITUK RIVER NEAR YAKUTAT IS AROUND 66 FEET. THE
ACTION STAGE FOR SITUK RIVER IS 70.5 FEET AND THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE
IS 71.5 FEET.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-041-042.

&&

AHN/WESLEY

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