Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
443 PM AKST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL WEAKEN THERE
TONIGHT. OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
AK THIS EVENING. ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE ERN
GULF THU.

THERE ARE SEVERAL FORECAST ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PANHANDLE ATTM.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE SRN AREAS TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE OVER
THE NRN AREA LATE THIS EVENING AFTER OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES PAST
THAT AREA. THE PAGY AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
HIGH WINDS...BUT FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A HIGH-END STRONG WIND FOR
THEM. WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG WINDS IN THE HAINES AREA...MAINLY
ALONG LYNN CANAL. THE PAJN/PAOH AREAS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE PAGS AREA SEES STRONG WINDS
DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST INNER CHANNEL MARINE WATERS WILL
HAVE GALES FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH GALES
OVER MAINLY THE SERN HALF OF THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING...BUT PICK UP OVER MAINLY THE ERN
GULF AND COASTAL AREAS THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES IN. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIND WITH THIS FRONT AS THE ONE
NOW AFFECTING THE AREA AS IT WILL BE A WEAKER SYSTEM.

MOST PLACES ARE SEEING RAIN ATTM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALLING
OVER THE MORE ERN AREAS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY HAVE SEEN A LOT OF SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT THERE. TEMPS ARE SLOWLY WARMING THERE...SO EXPECT RAIN
TO MIX IN BEGINNING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE WSW FOR WHITE PASS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN WHITE PASS SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT.

FOR MOST AREAS...TEMPS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD...WITH LITTLE DROP IN
TEMP EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS...WHERE IT
REMAINS IN THE 30S...WILL SEE TEMPS JUMP UP INTO THE 40S THIS
EVENING ONCE THE STRONG SLY WINDS GET THERE. NOT MUCH TEMP RISE IS
EXPECTED ON THU EITHER DUE TO RAIN CONTINUING OR MOVING INTO THE
AREA WITH NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM ATTENTION WAS ON THE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
TIME PERIOD AND EVOLVING OUT OF THIS VERY STORMY PERIOD. FORECAST
FROM SUN THROUGH WED WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE EARLY AND PROBABLY BELOW AVE FOR NEXT WEEK.

BY THUR NIGHT THE NEXT OCCULDED FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE
PANHANDLE COAST. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF AK ALONG 150W TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NW OF HAWAII.
IT WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT THU AND THE DEVELOPING LOW CENTER WILL SLING UP THE
COAST ON FRI BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE. RAIN AMTS FOR THIS SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
LESS THAN RECENT DAYS...ON THE ORDER 2 INCHES INSTEAD OF THE 3 TO
5 INCHES REPORTED TUE-WED. BUT WITH SATURATED GROUND ALREADY THE
THREAT OF HYDRO IMPACTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRI. ONE CONCERN
I HAVE IS MY WIND FORECASTS FOR THUR NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH FRI MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

THE GENERAL TREND SAT AND INTO NEXT WEEK IS CONTINUED CLOUDY AND
PERIODS OF RAIN FLOWING IN FROM THE SW. THE GOVERNING WEATHER
PATTERN LOSES A LITTLE STRENGTH OVER SE AK SUN-MON AS THE
JETSTREAM WEAKENS ALOFT AND SAGS SOUTHWARD. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE OVER THE PANHANDLE SUN-MON AND CHC OF SNOW IS
REINTRODUCED IN SOME NORTHERN ZONES. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF
SINCE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING JETSTREAM FROM THE SW
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...AREA
SMALL STREAMS HAVE RISEN TO BANKFULL TO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THE
RAIN WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT...SO EXPECT THE SMALL
STREAMS TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAY END UP ENDING SOME
OF THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVYS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AND
KEEP SOME OF THE OTHERS...MAINLY THE MORE NRN AREAS. THE
KETCHIKAN AREA HAS A DAM ALONG KETCHIKAN CREEK THAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING OVERTOPPED BY WATER...CAUSING MINOR FLOODING ALONG THAT
AREA. EARLIER...THERE WAS CONCERN THAT THE WATER LEVEL MAY GET HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A GREATER FLOOD THREAT...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED.
HOWEVER...THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A FLOOD ADVY AS WATER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DAM HAVE STABILIZED AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
TONIGHT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019>021-025-
     028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ025-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ020-021.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
 	 AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-036-042-043.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-035-041-051-052. SMALL CRAFT
     ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/TA

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