Small Craft Advisory 821, NWS Juneau, AK

374 
FZAK53 PAJK 192050 AAA
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-201500-
YAKUTAT BAY-
1150 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT LATE. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 2 FT OR LESS BUILDING
TO 5 FT LATE. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SE SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT EAST SIDE
OF THE BAY. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

108 
FZAK53 PAJK 200021
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-201600-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT LATE. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT
6 FT EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT EAST
SIDE OF THE BAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

702 
FZAK53 PAJK 201318
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-210100-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. EAST SIDE OF THE
BAY...SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY...SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT EAST
SIDE OF THE BAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
428 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE E INTO NORTHERN BC
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM NEAR KODIAK LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY E TO JUST S OF CAPE SPENCER BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E THU. WAS GENERALLY BASING FORECAST
OFF OF A 12Z GFS/NAM BLEND BUT PRESSURES AND WINDS DID NOT NEED
ANY LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL/TYPE/AMOUNTS AND
WINDS. WITH LOW HEADING E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS
WILL BE DIMINISHING FOR THE MOST PART. DEPTH OF UNSTABLE LAYER IS
DECREASING AS INVERSION ALOFT LOWERS...SO INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DECREASE TONIGHT. COULD GET ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST MTNS. SOME RAIN WILL MIX IN
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN COAST AND SRN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT.
WILL ALLOW ALL CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVYS TO
EXPIRE.

THEN...PRECIP WILL RACE EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS LOW MOVES
IN...AND THIS PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY THU MORNING OVER MOST
OF THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON LOW TRACK...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA OUT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST. LOOKS COLD ENOUGH ALONG THE JUNEAU TO ELFIN COVE
CORRIDOR FOR SNOW TO FALL...AND THAT AREA COULD GET AROUND 4
INCHES OF SNOW THRU THE DAY. WILL PUT OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVY
FOR ZONES 20...21...22...AND 25 FOR 15Z THU TO 03Z FRI FOR 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH...SOME SNOW WILL FALL BUT MOST AREAS
WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
STILL...SOME SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE FAR N
WILL LIKELY MISS MOST OF THIS PRECIP AND AM KEEPING POPS AT CHANCE
LEVELS THERE THU. THE PAYA AREA COULD GET GRAZED BY THE NRN EDGE
OF THE SNOW SHIELD...SO GOING FOR UP TO 2 INCHES THERE THU.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN LYNN CANAL
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF IN A MODERATE WLY FLOW TONIGHT AND THU S OF THE LOW TRACK.
NARROW BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY JUST S OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER NRN MARINE ZONE 310 AND 43 LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.
ALONG THE N GULF NEAR SHORE AREA...THEY WILL BECOME ELY LATER
TONIGHT AND THU WITH UP TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ON THE ROUGH SIDE THROUGH THU WITH THE LONG WLY WIND FETCH OVER
THE GULF.

.LONG TERM...BELOW IS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FOR HAINES/SKAGWAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO 2 INCHES. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
WARMING OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING RAIN SHOULD BEGIN
MIXING IN. WHEN SHOULD YOU SHOVEL? PROBABLY YOU CAN WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. BUT RAIN WILL FALL OVER YOUR DRIVEWAY SNOW IF YOU
DO NOT REMOVE IT. BE FOREWARNED. FOR TRAVELERS INTO
CANADA...SERIOUS THOUGHT WAS GIVEN ABOUT A POSSIBLY WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR WHITE PASS. HERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CHILLY ENOUGH FOR SNOW INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. AND QPF BY SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. STAY TUNED.

FOR YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, HOONAH, AND PELICAN...ANY SNOW LEFT
FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN CHANGING TO
RAIN AS LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL BEGIN WARMING
STEADILY OVERNIGHT. WHEN SHOULD YOU SHOVEL ALL THIS SNOW? THURSDAY
EVENING...OTHERWISE, YOU MAY BE SHOVELING IN A RAIN JACKET ON A
SKATING RINK THAT YOU CALL YOUR DRIVEWAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A MESS.
THIS IS NOT THE DAY ANYONE WANTS TO VENTURE OUT IN SUEDE...STICK
TO RUBBER AND GORTEX. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES IN THIS
AREA...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...RAIN AND STEADY WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SHOULD KEEP DRIVEWAYS
CLEAN OF ICE. LEAVE YOUR SHOVELS IN THE GARAGE...BUT LIKE YOUR
COUNTERPARTS TO THE NORTH...NO TIME FOR SUEDE. RUBBER AND GORTEX
ARE EXTRAORDINARILY FASHIONABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NOW FOR WIND...GRADIENTS BEGIN TIGHTENING WITH THE NEXT BIG FRONT
ARRIVING ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GALES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE INSIDE PASSAGES AS WELL.
WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 40 KT...BUT SKAGWAY
MOS IS A BIT TROUBLESOME EVEN IF YOU IGNORE THE GFS MOS WHICH WENT
OUT OF CONTROL. WE COULD SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH SKAGWAY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH JUNEAU AND OTHER AREAS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLE DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...GULF SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 FEET WITH GREAT
SOUTHWEST FETCH LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THIS MAJOR FRONT PASSES SATURDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DROPPING AGAIN...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACHED IN THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...SNOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
LIKE EARLIER SHIFTS HAVE INDICATED POTENTIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LARGESCALE COLD TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THUS A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN. WINDS
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH ALLOWS COLD AIR TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS AGAIN. IN
FACT...AN OUTFLOW EVENT WITH RAW NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT
ITSELF EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG IMPACTING TRAVEL JUST IN TIME FOR PEAK HOLIDAY
TRAVEL AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. POTENTIALLY THOUGH...SUEDE COULD BE
PULLED OUT OF THE CLOSET EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

FORECAST GOOD FOR SUCH A DYNAMIC PERIOD. BUT GIVEN SO MANY
ELEMENTS AND CHANGES TO KEEP TRACK...DO NOT TRANSLATE THIS AS
EVERY DETAIL HAS BEEN COVERED AS SUFFICIENTLY AS WE WOULD LIKE.
DETAILS MAY CHANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ020>022-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ021-022.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-031>034-041-042-051-052.

&&

RWT/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY SNOW       9 NNW JUNEAU            58.42N 134.51W
11/18/2015  M12.1 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED AT NWS FORECAST OFFICE IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY
            FROM 9 AM TUE TO 3 PM WED.

0330 PM     HEAVY SNOW       8 NW JUNEAU             58.38N 134.57W
11/18/2015  M13.6 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOW FALL AS OF 3 PM WED FOR TUE AND WED AT
            JUNEAU AIRPORT.

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ELFIN COVE              58.19N 136.34W
11/18/2015  M9.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 5 PM WED.

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
11/18/2015  M9.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW AT PELICAN ENDING AT 4 PM WED.

&&

EAL