Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Juneau, AK

948 
FZAK52 PAJK 292147 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300100-
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
HAIDA GWAII. 

$$

PKZ041-300100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1247 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN
SHOWERS LATE.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLD AIR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH
THAT THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOKE UP TO SNOW THIS MORNING ARE STILL
SEEING SNOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, SO
MORE SNOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR HAINES, AND HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR GUSTAVUS,
SKAGWAY, AND HAINES. A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN
THE JUNEAU AREA IS POSSIBLE AND TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW, SO THAT ADVISORY WILL END FIRST AT
6AM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FRONT ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND
MOVING NNE OVER THE PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALING
A BROAD AND SOLID CONNECTION TO LOW LATITUDE MOISTURE SOURCE. TPW
VALUES FAIRLY MODEST AT AROUND 1 INCH BUT WITH THE TRAINING MOTION
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE NET EFFECT WILL BE MUCH MORE INTENSE.
RADAR DATA THROUGH THE DAY CONFIRMING THIS WITH UPWARDS OF 60 DBZ
TOTAL REFLECTIVITY BEING OBSERVED. 500MB DEFORMATION AND TEMPS
INDICATING AT LEAST ONE FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TO
THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

THINK THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANGOON AND
ICY STRAIT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, SO HAVE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. COORDINATED WITH ENVIRONMENT CANADA
REGARDING THE AREA AROUND HYDER AND STEWART WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN
1 INCH THERE.

BLENDED NAM, GFS, AND GEM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE WITH THE GEM
BEING USED TO MORE CLEARLY CAPTURE A WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POP AND QPF PRIMARILY FROM NAM
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM GFS. TEMPS PRIMARILY PER GFS MOS. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP
TO THE SRN AREA LATER THU NIGHT/FRI. GEM/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A LOW
MOVING NE TOWARD THE FAR SERN AREA...WITH SOME DIFFS IN EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE MODELS. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z GEM/EC/NAM
TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM. POPS RAISED TO LIKELY BY EARLY FRI FOR THE
FAR SRN ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE S-CENTRAL AREA. ALSO
DRIED THINGS OUT SOME OVER THE NRN AREAS DUE TO THIS SYSTEM
TURNING FLOW OFFSHORE QUICKER. COLDER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE
N ONCE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...ENDED UP MAINTAINING THE GEM/EC/NAM BLEND
THRU SAT...THEN WENT WITH LATEST WPC FROM SUN ONWARD. BLENDED WPC
WITH THE GEM/EC FOR SAT NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER INTERIOR AK AND NW CANADA. LOOKING LIKE A FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA FOR THE SAT NIGHT-SUN PERIOD...BUT IT WILL
RUN INTO THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING SWD. THINK BEST THREAT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SYSTEMS COMING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SW...SO LOOKS LIKE INCREASING PRECIP THREAT AND MODERATION OF
TEMPS WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING/TRACK
OF SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION ACTIVITIES WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BELOW MOST PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINTOPS. AND ICING, MOSTLY RIME, HAS BEEN REPORTED BELOW FL100 IN
PIREPS TODAY. AM FULLY EXPECTING THOSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEE AAWU AIRMETS ZULU AND SIERRA AS
WELL AS THE APPLICABLE FA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018-020.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>035-042-043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1122 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HEAVY SNOW       6 NW DOUGLAS            58.33N 134.50W
01/28/2015  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            5 INCHES MEASURED ON NORTH DOUGLAS AS OF 418PM AND WAS
            STILL SNOWING.

0440 PM     HEAVY SNOW       LENA LOOP               58.39N 134.77W
01/28/2015  M6.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            6.5 INCHES MEASURED AS OF 440PM AND WAS STILL SNOWING
            LIGHTLY.

0715 PM     HEAVY SNOW       GUSTAVUS                58.41N 135.80W
01/28/2015  M6.6 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1.6 INCHES MEASURED AT 5AM AND ANOTHER 5 INCHES MEASURED
            AT 715PM FOR A TOTAL OF 6.6 INCHES AND WAS STILL SNOWING.

0730 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 ESE MONTANA CREEK     58.40N 134.57W
01/28/2015  M5.3 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            5.3 INCHES MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE IN THE
            MENDENHALL VALLEY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.

&&

NAF