High Wind Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

617 
WWAK77 PAJK 110758
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1158 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015


AKZ027-111600-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.151011T1800Z-151012T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1158 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM AKDT
SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA AND 
  THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. 

* WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...SE WIND INCREASING THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH A
  PEAK AROUND MID DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT S AND EASE BELOW WARNING
  LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WIND MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
  RAIN WHICH MAY POSE A RISK OF MUDSLIDES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 AM AKDT SUNDAY MORNING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

505 
WWAK77 PAJK 111443
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
643 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

AKZ027-112300-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.151011T1800Z-151012T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
643 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA AND 
  THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. 

* WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

* TIMING...SE WIND INCREASING THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH A 
  PEAK AROUND MID DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT S AND EASE BELOW WARNING 
  LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WIND MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY 
  RAIN WHICH MAY POSE A RISK OF MUDSLIDES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

235 
WWAK77 PAJK 112205
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
205 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

AKZ027-120300-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-151012T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
205 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA AND THE
  SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING HYDABURG...CRAIG...AND KLAWOCK

* WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH.

* TIMING...SE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES AND BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO 
  ROADWAYS...STRUCTURES...AND POWER LINES. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO 
  POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT UNDERWAY OR AT THEIR MOORINGS AS 
  WELL AS AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ON LOCAL 
  ROADWAYS. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
  RAIN WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

677 
WWAK77 PAJK 120243
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
643 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015


AKZ027-120345-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-151012T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
643 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

HIGH WINDS IN THE AREA HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AFTER
GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS THIS EVENING UP TO 40
MPH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF FOR SUNDAY, AND THEN WILL SLOWLY CURVE NORTHWEST
ON A TRACK TOWARD CAPE SUCKLING INTO MONDAY. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE
IMPRESSIVE...ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 80 KT. ONE DIFFERENCE IN THIS
STORM AND THE STORM ON FRIDAY SEEMS TO BE THE TIGHT GRADIENTS BY
ALL MODELS IN THE SURFACE FIELD OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS SUPPORTS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...NOT ONLY
SKAGWAY CONFIDENCE BUILDING FOR YAKUTAT. AS BOTH THE ECWMF AND GEM
TRACK THE STORM FARTHER FROM COAST THAN THE LAST...THE STORM FORCE
WINDS HAVE BEEN RESERVED FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS...FIRST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AND THEN BECOMING EAST. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 23 AND 28 WERE CANCELLED AND REPLACED
WITH WIND GUSTS LESS THAN 60 MPH NEEDED FOR A WARNING. WESTERN
PRINCE OF WALES WAS UPGRADED FROM A HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. WE THINK THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL BE
MID-DAY SUNDAY...BUT EXTENDED THIS OUT TO 7 PM JUST IN CASE THE
NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WERE MORE CORRECT. GALES WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN WATERS NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL INSIDE CHANNELS BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG GRADIENT
PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY BREEZY THROUGH THE INSIDE
CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF RAINFALL AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE STORM FORCE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
REACHING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO
INCH ON MONDAY.

DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES MAY REAPPEAR TONIGHT AS CLEARING SHOULD HELP RADIATIONAL
COOLING BEGIN EARLY AFTER SUNDOWN AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES UNIMPACTFUL...RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH SUNDAY. USED
GEM/ECWMF FOR WINDS/PRESSURE. RFC AND NAM WERE FAVORED FOR POP/QPF
MAINLY BECAUSE OF THEIR GREATER PRECISION OF HIGHER TERRAIN
FEATURES.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERY REGIME WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THIS COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS -32 TO -34 C AT 500 MB WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN POPS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER
SIDE HOWEVER EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WINDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT TIMES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS WINDING DOWN OVER
BARANOF ISLAND AND ANGOON BUT BEGINNING IN JUNEAU. NORTHERLIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CHANNELS WILL SWITCH SUDDENLY SOUTHEAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THUS SKAGWAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
TUESDAY. AND YAKUTAT AS THE LOW MANAGES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED GRIDS AS MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF FORECAST. DID USE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR
DAYS 5 THROUGH 8. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AFTER MID
WEEK WITH STORM MOVING INTO THE GULF.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ024.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032.

&&

JWA/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

AKZ018>029-110815-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
332 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...

A DEVELOPING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL BRING
MORE RAIN TO THE ALREADY SATURATED PANHANDLE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
ON SUNDAY. 48 HR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING
RANGE FROM 1.25 INCHES TO NEARLY 3 INCHES. HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RECOVERING FROM RECENT RECORD
RAINFALL...BUT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH. FORECAST RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE MANY WATERWAYS TO RISE TO BANKFULL CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS...COMBINED WITH SATURATED
GROUND WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANT.