Gale Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

267 
FZAK67 PAJK 141239
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-150100-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT OVER THE GULF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-150100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. EAST OF 139 W...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING
TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
220 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NERN PAC IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SRN GULF
TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE TO THE NRN GULF BY WED AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE PANHANDLE...WITH
SLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY SLACKENING OVER THE INSIDE
WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHENED AROUND MIDDAY TUE OVER NRN
LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY...WHERE GALE FORCE SPEEDS/STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS WILL
THEN WEAKEN AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GRADIENT SLACKENS.

MINOR UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING ENE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
SRN GULF TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING 850 MB WAA WILL SPREAD N FROM THE
SRN INTO THE CNTRL PANHANDLE. PLUME OF PW VALUES FROM 0.6-0.8 INCH
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MESOSCALE ZONE OF ASCENT...FAVORING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY 09-15Z WED. DURING WED
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ASCENT...BOTH SYNOPTIC AND OROGRAPHIC...WILL
BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM YAKUTAT E TO SKAGWAY.

ESE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE CYCLONE ROTATES NNW INTO THE SWRN GULF. AS A
RESULT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MARINE ZONE
310...AND POSSIBLY 41 BY 12Z WED...AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE
AOA 10 FEET FOR ALL OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON...A 50 KT SSELY LLJ WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT OVER THE INSIDE WATERS
/WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL/. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR HYDABURG AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH ARE ALSO PROBABLE
FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS KETCHIKAN AS WELL AS JUNEAU AS THE LLJ
SPREADS N ACROSS THE N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS.

TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMED TUE MORNING...WITH VALUES CURRENTLY
IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT SEA LEVEL. SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A HUMID MARINE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...DO NOT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL VERY FAR FROM CURRENT
READINGS. INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...THUS
CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR...PARTICULARLY AFTER 12Z WED. NO
CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE DERIVED USING
A BLEND OF COARSE-RES ECMWF AND HI-RES ARW/NMM.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY WET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 FOR SOME FINE TUNES. GENERAL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED WET
WEATHER...BUT TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT. A FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTAL SECTIONS
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES OF
THE INNER CHANNELS. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATION WILL BE
MINIMAL. USED THE LATEST WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DUE TO INCREASED
MODEL SPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF AND PUSH FRONTS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

GARNER/AHN

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