Gale Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

239 
FZAK67 PAJK 131243
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-140100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
WINDS WILL EASE BRIEFLY TUE AS THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
INLAND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF AND STRENGTHENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK.  

$$

PKZ310-140100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
231 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EAST TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS WITH CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. TEMPERATURES SOAR UP TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION FALLS AS ALL RAIN AT THE SEA LEVEL
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHWAYS.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
WITH THE NAM12 FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE RESULTANT CHANGES
WERE MINOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO DOWNGRADING TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS AND CLARENCE STRAIT WILL DIMINISH...BUT
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL PICK UP SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ENHANCE TO A GALE FORCE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. POSTED STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY ZONE AS WELL
TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH THE INCOMING
WARM FRONT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHWAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 30 AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES OVER NRN LYNN CANAL AND STRONG
WINDS /GUSTS TO 40 MPH/ FOR SKAGWAY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM TUE NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
AS UPPER RIDGE RESHARPENS OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TRANSITIONS TO NLY. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A FAIRLY
POTENT UPPER IMPULSE MOVING N ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF WED
AFTERNOON. TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH
THE GFS AND GEM THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...AND NAM THE SLOWEST.
REGARDLESS...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
WAA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCH/ WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING MOST OF WED. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLONE
MOVING N OVER THE CNTRL/WRN GULF...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSING ENE TOWARD THE ERN GULF...WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH THU
MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR HYDABURG AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THU MORNING.

CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM...WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY THIS
WEEKEND. SNOW CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR NRN SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS /AND
HYDER/. NUDGED PRESSURE GRIDS TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM 12Z THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED TO WPC STARTING 12Z FRI.
HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD AT THE SURFACE BECOMES LARGE BY 00Z
MON...THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE AFTER THAT POINT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE UTILIZED FOR POP AND QPF THROUGH 18Z FRI...WPC
THEREAFTER...WITH FEW CHANGES MADE BEYOND 00Z SUN DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD IN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-034>036.

&&

AHN/GARNER

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