Gale Warning 73, NWS Juneau, AK

074 
FZAK52 PAJK 170304 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171615-
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 982 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF FRI EVENING WILL MOVE N
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB THROUGH LATE SAT. A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF EARLY SUN WILL MOVE N AND
BECOME BROAD OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-171615-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171615-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 
21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171615-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171615-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.SUN...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171615-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
601 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

351 
FZAK52 PAJK 171232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SAT AND
DISSIPATE. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN GULF SUN.  

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.SUN...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO
12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...PUSHING RAIN
BANDS NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE. THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATES
CLOUDS AND RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND INNER CHANNELS. CONTINUED WARMING TREND KEEPS
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BECOMES A 982 MB LOW
AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THIS EVENING...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN TO ABOUT 988 MB
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
THE 12Z RUN NAM12 FOR ITS GOOD COMPROMISING SOLUTION AMONG THE
MODEL COMMUNITY. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SINCE THE ORIGIN OF
THE INCOMING STORM IS LOCATED IN THE SUB- TROPICAL REGION.

AHEAD AND ALONG THE INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL AFFECT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. POSTED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR PRINCE OF WALES AND
ANNETTE ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT AS WELL. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BEGIN
DIMINISHING SATURDAY AND DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ROUGH SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE OUTSIDE WATERS. THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
TONIGHT BEARS A POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL GUSTS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...EXCEPT ALONG KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS WHERE
SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW NEAR WHITE PASS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND 6 TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE FEATURES A PARTIAL BREAK IN THE CONSTANT
STREAM OF WET DAYS. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE BREAK DOWN OF
THE U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING THE MAIN JET
STREAM INTO THE GULF AND SE ALASKA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE JET WELL
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE OF YOU LIKING SNOW AND COLD THE
WEST COAST RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING THE MAIN JET
CORE TO BE AIMED AT THE PANHANDLE AGAIN AND WILL BRING SEVERAL
MORE WET, WARM STORMS TO THE AREA FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS WHAT A WEAK LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST IS GOING TO DO. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
ARE IN A STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW TO HANDLE IT MAINLY DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STARTED OUT
SHOWING A 980 TO 985 MB LOW THAT WOULD HEAD NE OVER NORTHERN HAIDA
GWAII AND NEARLY STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUN
KEEPING THE SOUTH WET AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MOSTLY DRY. THE
NEW TREND HAS A 990 MB LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST (TRACK TAKES IT
INLAND NEAR SITKA) WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT. ECMWF AND THE GEM WERE THE EARLY ADOPTERS OF
THIS TREND TODAY AND THE NEWER GFS AND NAM HAVE SINCE JUMPED ON
BOARD THE BANDWAGON. THIS TREND NOT ONLY KEEPS IN MORE LIKELY
PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE (KEPT POPS AT LIKELY SINCE
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT FOR STRENGTH AND
TRACK) BUT WITH THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS AND SOME WEAK WAA DECIDED
TO UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ON SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME COOLER AIR THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW MIXING IN AT SEA LEVEL
SOUTH OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY, WHICH WAS ALREADY ON THE BORDERLINE
TO BEGIN WITH, IS A BIT LOWER IN THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE REALM OF A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH AS THERE IS NO TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM.

FARTHER OUT THE REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SW JET ALOFT STARTS TO
BRING IN MORE JUICY SYSTEMS. THE FIRST APPEARS MON NIGHT INTO TUES
BRINGING THE FIRST NEW SHOT OF RAIN AND WARM AIR. STRUCTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE HASHED OUT YET AS THE GFS AND GEM WANT TO
DEVELOP A 985 MB LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND TRACK IT
NORTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE CONTENT WITH A OPEN WAVE
TROUGH. SEEING AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE
CLOSED LOW DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE OPEN WAVE IDEA OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE IT BRINGS MORE RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOME SE WINDS TO 25 KT OUT IN THE GULF MON NIGHT. AFTER THIS THE
PARADE OF STORMS CONTINUES WITH AT LEAST THREE MORE COMING RIGHT
ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN RISE TO 2500 FT
OR HIGHER WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE SO I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW AT SEA LEVEL ANYWHERE IN THE
PANHANDLE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE HAINES
AND SKAGWAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM BEFORE THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS A CHANCE TO REACH UP THERE. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE WARM UP AND DRENCHING THAT THE PANHANDLE WILL
RECEIVE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT STILL HAVE ISSUES TO WORK OUT ON
TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM. LEANED MORE ON THE
THE WPC DATA WITH ITS USE OF MORE ENSEMBLE DATA WITH A BIT OF
ECMWF THROWN IN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027-028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.

&&

AHN/EAL

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