Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015
Gale Warning 72, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Jan 16, 2015, 6:37 AM AKST. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 16, 2015, 6:37 AM AKST (15:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 16, 2015, 11:59 AM AKST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
903 FZAK51 PAJK 161538 AAA CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-170945- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SE AK SAT. $$ PKZ011-170945- GLACIER BAY- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 .TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-170945- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ013-170945- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ021-170945- ICY STRAIT- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-170945- CROSS SOUND- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ031-170945- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-170945- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-170945- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ034-170945- FREDERICK SOUND- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-170945- SUMNER STRAIT- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-170945- CLARENCE STRAIT- 637 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
1 follow-up statement
279 FZAK51 PAJK 162112 AAA CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-171500- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A 982 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF FRI EVENING WILL MOVE N INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB THROUGH LATE SAT. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF EARLY SUN WILL MOVE N AND BECOME BROAD OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE SUN NIGHT. $$ PKZ011-171500- GLACIER BAY- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-171500- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ013-171500- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ021-171500- ICY STRAIT- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-171500- CROSS SOUND- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ031-171500- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-171500- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-171500- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ034-171500- FREDERICK SOUND- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-171500- SUMNER STRAIT- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-171500- CLARENCE STRAIT- 1159 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 16, 5:29 AM AKST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 5:29 AM AKST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
529 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...A LOW AND COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE S-CENTRAL GULF
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN REACH THE N-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THRU THE ERN GULF AND SE AK TODAY...WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES NE INTO THE FAR ERN GULF BY LATE
TONIGHT. USED THE 06Z NAM FOR THE FORECAST THRU TONIGHT AS IT WAS
A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE ON SYSTEM STRENGTH BETWEEN THE
STRONGER 00Z GFS AND WEAKER 00Z ECMWF.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS. PRECIP
IS GOING TO TRANSITION FROM A SHOWERY REGIME TO STRATIFORM THIS
MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP BAND WILL LIFT NWD THRU THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...WITH SOME DIMINISHING IN THE PRECIP AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES
BY THE AREA. PRECIP MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY TODAY ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST. BEST CHANCE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL BE
OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. PRECIP WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SPOTTY PRECIP
THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PRECIP BAND THOUGH AS
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES NE ACROSS THE SRN AREA TONIGHT...SO POPS
THERE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT. SYSTEM IS A WARM ONE SO
THE ONLY PTYPE CONCERNS WILL BE NEAR WHITE PASS. THINK THEY WILL
BE MAINLY SNOW THRU TONIGHT...AND GIVEN QPF...WILL EXTEND THE
WINTER WX ADVY FOR THEM THRU 5 AM SAT. GOING FOR ADDITIONAL 6 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW IN WHITE PASS THRU TONIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT...WITH A DROP TO AROUND 25-30 KT IN
THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN FRONTS. ALSO...WILL LIKELY SEE GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SRN INNER CHANNELS. 925 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 45-60
KT OVER THAT AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
35-40 KT ESPECIALLY IN CLARENCE STRAIT. MOST REMAINING INNER
CHANNEL AREAS WILL MAX OUT AT SCA LEVELS. LYNN CANAL WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY THOUGH AS GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THEM BY THIS EVENING. BASED ON 925 MB FLOW REMAINING SLY
THOUGH...KEPT IN SCA S WINDS THERE THRU TONIGHT WITH A BIT OF A
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE
PAGY AREA THRU TODAY...AND FOR THE PASI/PAHY/PAKT ZONES FOR
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE PAHY ZONE COULD GET TO HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVEL GUSTS TONIGHT IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP A BIT STRONGER
THAN FORECAST...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY IN MOST
PLACES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP DURING THU NIGHT. MAY NOT BE
MUCH OF A DROP TONIGHT EITHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DO SUGGEST THE 925 MB TEMPS DROP A DEGREE OR SO EVEN AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...SO DID ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREE DROP IN TEMPS
TONIGHT. REMAINED MOSTLY ABOVE MOS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME DEGREE OF CONCENSUS FOR THE NEW
GALE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...THE LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WEST OF YAKUTAT AT 15Z. TRAILING
FRONT OVER PANHANDLE WILL ASSIST IN GENERATING MORE RAINFALL AND
WIND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH LESS IMPACTFUL AS ITS PREDECESSORS.
WENT WITH PRIMARILY AN EC/NAM COMBO FOR THE SATURDAY- MONDAY
PERIOD FOR THE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC GRIDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW AND FRONT ARE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE STILL AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST (SATURDAY)...UPPER GRADIENTS AND FORCING ARE LIKELY TO BE
DIMINISHING OVERALL AS WE ENTER INTO A BIT OF A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
FROM JET FORCING ALOFT...CENTER OF ACTION WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL, GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER OPEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE THE LOW STRENGTH DIMINISHES OVER AND WEST
OF YAKUTAT LATE IN THE DAY. A NEW RATHER WEAK LOW IS ON TAP TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO JET FORCING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW STALLS OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND STEADILY WEAKENS BUT WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF BOTH THE OUTER AND INNER
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ALL OF THIS OCCURS AS WE TEMPORARILY
LOSE MUCH OF THE UPPER- AIR SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE SYSTEMS. ON
MONDAY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT AS THE 06Z NAM BUILDS A SHORT-LIVED
RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF AT 84H WHILE THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
REDEVELOP WESTERN GULF TROUGHING BY LATE MONDAY. CHOSE TO UTILIZE
MOSTLY WPC GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AS THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY
BECOMES SIGNIFICANT.
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BECOME A LARGER ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND GOES
ON AND IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT COOLING WILL BEGIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SNOW LEVEL DECREASE IS LIKELY BEGINNING AT THAT
POINT AS WE LOSE OUR WIDE- OPEN WARM AIR SOURCE. SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AND HYDER MAY GET TO SEA LEVEL ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON MONDAY. JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS
MAY GET INTO THE MIXED PRECIP MODE DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REGENERATES. BY THE TUES/WED TIME PERIOD
IT APPEARS ON MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WARMER TEMPS/RAINFALL
WILL RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE...THIS WHAT THE EC/GFS ADVERTISE WITH
THE GFS AND EC KICKING BACK IN WITH AN ACTIVE JET ALOFT BY TUES OR SO.
THIS IS THE SCENARIO THE WPC GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWING AT THIS POINT.
IN FACT BY ABOUT THURSDAY THE FETCH ALOFT FOR THE EASTERN GULF IS
DIRECT FROM HAWAII ON THE EC RUN. MODEL CONFIDENCE FOR THE BULK OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS AVERAGE OVERALL.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-
028.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-053.
&&
RWT/WESLEY
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAUThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 3:32 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AJK | 37 hr | |
| Jan 15, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 3 hr | |
| Jan 15, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Jan 15, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Jan 15, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 3 days | |
| Jan 15, 6:31 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 9 hr | |
| Jan 15, 6:31 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 45 hr | |
| Jan 16, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Jan 16, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Jan 16, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Jan 16, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 36 hr | |
| Jan 16, 11:59 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 52 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.