Gale Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

659 
FZAK67 PAJK 121246
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE MON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.  

$$

PKZ310-130100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NORTHERN HALF...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN HALF...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
TO ELFIN COVE. AREAS OF FOG FORMED EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND PERSIST IN SOME PLACES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN IN LIGHTER SIDE OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS AND INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WITH 6 TO 7 FEET SEAS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...EXCEPT SOME INLAND
VALLEYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE COLD AIR STILL
RESIDING IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES NEAR HYDER REPORT MID TO
UPPER TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 FOR SOME
FINE TUNES. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING PRIOR TO ONSET OF MAIN RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE...PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING HOURS,

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN BANDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUALLY SLOW WARMING
TREND. THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN AS
THEY ARE OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...EXCEPT ALONG THE HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 30 AND
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MENDENHALL VALLEY
WILL ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S FOR CHANCE OF SNOW.
CONTINUED WARMING TREND WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. NEAR WHITE
PASS...SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND 2400 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...CROSS SOUND...ICY
STRAIT...GLACIER BAY AND CLARENCE STRAIT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WILL GENERATE GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OFFSHORE AND OUTSIDE
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT...FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMMER STRAIT IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.
RELAXED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN WINDS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. PATTERN WILL FAVOR MINOR DISTURBANCES
MOVING INLAND...THE FIRST ON MON NIGHT...AND A SECOND ON
WED...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE TO
MID/UPPER 40S FOR SRN AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES WILL
ACCOMPANY BOTH OF THESE UPPER WAVES...WHICH MAY YIELD LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. PRESSURE GRADIENT GOES THROUGH MULTIPLE FLUCTUATIONS
FROM N TO S DURING THE WEEK...WITH WIND SPEEDS OVER THE INSIDE
WATERS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE CROSS SOUND...WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WED AS ELYS ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE SURFACE WAVE MOVING
N OVER THE GULF. OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM MARINE ZONE 43 TO 52 DURING TUE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...AND THEN WEAKEN BY TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALES WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE GULF ON WED AND THU.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE BERING SEA BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH MAY AID IN BREAKING DOWN A QUASI-PERSISTENT
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER SERN AK. WHETHER THIS HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT THE PATTERN CHANGE COULD BRING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO
THE PANHANDLE WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MORE NORMAL
VALUES. NUDGED PRESSURE GRIDS TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM STARTING 00Z
WED THROUGH 00Z THU...THEN INTRODUCED NEW WPC BY 00Z FRI...WHICH
DID NOT YIELD SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES FROM INHERITED GRIDS. BLENDED IN
GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS STARTING 06Z WED THAT TRANSITIONED TO WPC 00Z
SAT. THIS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES. QPF WAS
DERIVED IN A SIMILAR MANNER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-033>036-041.

&&

AHN/GARNER

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