Gale Warning 67, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
300 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NNW OVER THE NRN GULF...WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SRN
GULF. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING N TONIGHT...BECOMING
POSITIONED FROM THE ERN GULF INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SWRN AK BY
00Z FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NWRN GULF SSE TO THE SERN GULF WILL PROGRESS N
AND E ACROSS THE COAST THIS EVENING. PW VALUES FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
INCH COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM YAKUTAT TO
JUNEAU S TO SITKA AND KLAWOCK/HYDABURG AND KETCHIKAN. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SPREADING N AND E AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND HI-RES ARW/NMM RESULTED IN HIGH POP
VALUES WITH THE SECOND FRONTAL BAND PANHANDLE WIDE DURING MIDDAY
THU.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT
APPROACHING SRN COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR HYDABURG. THESE WINDS MAY
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN WITH THE NEXT
FRONT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR AKZ023 /SITKA/ AND AKZ028
/KETCHIKAN/ FROM LATE THU MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY
SUBSIDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 50-60 KT SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AS WELL...AIDING IN A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THU AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS...WINDS WERE TWEAKED FOR
LOCAL EFFECTS. POP AND QPF GRIDS WERE REFRESHED WITH ECMWF AND
ARW/NMM. INHERITED TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...LATEST MODEL RUN SUGGESTS A LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF GETTING CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...ABOUT 983 MB...MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL MADE A GOOD
CONSENSUS FOR THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE AND WERE BLENDED TO INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PANHANDLE
COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THAT...LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER BY MID WEEK ONWARD AND USED THE
LATEST WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ALASKA GULF AND PUSH FRONTAL PASSAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH THE MID WEEK. CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SINCE STORMS ORIGINATED OVER THE
SUB-TROPICAL REGION. SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARD THE MID WEEK. ADDED
SNOW WORDING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHWAYS AND HYDER AREAS TO THE
END OF THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>034.

&&

GARNER/AHN

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