Gale Warning 489, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...A 950 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY IS SPINNING ITS ASSOCIATE
GALE TO STORM FORCE FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INLAND SATURDAY. SNOW STARTING THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THEN MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE
AREA BY MORNING. PANHANDLE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE IN PART TO COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEARER SKIES. AS SUCH MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW.

NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST ZONES ARE UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OR WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARNING FOR FOR SNOW
INCLUDE YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY JUNEAU AND MISTY FJORDS TOTALS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 INCHES...THOUGH HYDER WILL LIKELY SEE A
FOOT OF SNOW. FOR THE OTHER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES
WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS AS WELL
OVER NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WHERE THERE SHOULD BE 25 TO 35 KT
WINDS...GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES OR MORE CHANNELS AREAS SHOULD
BE REACHING 40 TO 45 KT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND IT SEEMS
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WARMING TO A
RAIN PATTERN AND ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR CROSS SOUND WITH POCKETS
TRYING TO CREEP INTO THE PANHANDLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO
AVERAGE FOR THE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO LONG TERM WERE TO DELAY THE WARM
UP SOME THRU MON AND TO BOOST POPS SOME ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL GO ALOFT AS IT HEADS E
OF THE AREA SAT EVENING. IT NO LONGER APPEARS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
WAVE WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT OVER THE SE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...SO ENDED UP LOWERING POPS THERE FOR THAT PERIOD. A TROF WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE AREA FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THERE. FURTHER OUT...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM UP
ESPECIALLY FROM TUE ONWARD. USED LATEST WPC FOR THE MON NIGHT
ONWARD TIME FRAME.

WITH THE WARM UP DELAYED SOME...BROUGHT IN MORE MENTION OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE NRN AND FAR ERN AREAS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH IN FOR LATE MON AND MON NIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY GET HELD UP OFFSHORE AS ENERGY WITH FRONT SPLITS. THEN IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND WED NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK FAIRLY WARM SO PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ022>024-026-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ019-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ018-020-021.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY
     FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031-033>036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-032-053.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT

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