Gale Warning 457, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
ONLY SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PLACES TO DEAL WITH. THERE
IS A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF SITKA
NORTH TO THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE. THAT BAND WAS MAKING SOME PROGRESS
TOWARD SHORE DURING THE DAY BUT INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW IS
STARTING TO TURN IT BACK OUT TO SEA AS SEEN ON RECENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR.

TONIGHT IS ALSO LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR MOST AREAS. FOG MAY
RETURN AGAIN FOR SOME PLACES BUT INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT
MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT AND HOW LOW VISIBILITIES GET DUE TO INCREASED
MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TO RETURN IS
IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE EASTERLY FLOW STARTS PICKING UP.
IN AREAS WITH CLEARER SKIES AND LOW WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND GULF LATE AS
THE NEXT STORM STARTS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST, MOST OF THE HIGHER WINDS WITH THE FRONT
WILL MOSTLY BE OBSERVED IN AREAS THAT HAVE AN EAST EXPOSURE. GUSTS
TO 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN THOSE AREAS. RAIN ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS
FRONT WITH MOST OF IT STARTING UP SAT MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WEAKENING
AS IT GOES AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM ITS PARENT LOW AND IT GETS
TORN APART BY THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

FARTHER NORTH, THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL ACTUALLY CREATE AN OUTFLOW EVENT.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN SEVERAL NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS TOMORROW AS A RESULT. THE INGREDIENTS FOR A
POSSIBLE SYNOPTIC DRIVEN MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS TOMORROW ARE AVAILABLE AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
GUSTS HIGHER THEN 35 MPH THOUGH AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR
GETTING DRAGGED IN FROM CANADA AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 KT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY HAD SOME ISSUES WITH THE NEXT FRONT
COMING UP FOR TOMORROW. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES GENERALLY SHOW A
RATHER COMPLEX FRONT WITH SEVERAL WAVES FORMING ALONG IT. THE
ECMWF SEEMED TO COME OUT ON TOP REPRESENTING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
FEATURES AND GENERALLY KEPT THAT GOING AS THE FRONT CAME INTO THE
GULF. MOST OTHER MODELS DECIDED TO SMOOTH THINGS OUT A BIT AND
GENERALLY CAME IN WITH A MORE STREAMLINE FRONT. SO DECIDED TO LEAN
MORE ON THE ECMWF FOR UPDATES TODAY.

.LONG TERM...LOW WILL LIFT NNE INTO THE ERN GULF FOR SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON EXACT TRACK AS THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN RATHER COMPLEX. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MON AND MON NIGHT
OVER THE NE GULF AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE SW. THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS STRONGER
SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING MAIN LOW INTO THE SW GULF TUE WHILE
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TAKE IT INTO THE ERN GULF. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A STRONG WAVE THAT MOVES N INTO THE ERN GULF HOWEVER. GIVEN
THE DIFFERENCES...BASICALLY KEPT THINGS AS IS FOR TUE THEN
INCORPORATED THE LATEST WPC FOR TUE NIGHT ONWARD. THIS KEEPS MAIN
LOW FURTHER W THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN AT THIS POINT. STILL...LOOKS
WET AND WINDY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PAC AND
GULF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER THREAT FOR
PRECIP GOING DURING THIS TIME. MAY COOL OFF A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL.

FOR SAT NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FIRST FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
NRN PANHANDLE. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL BE LEFT WITH IT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE N DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. KEPT POPS OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN 1/4TH OF THE AREA AT CHANCE LEVELS OR LESS. MAY
BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL OVER THAT
AREA THOUGH...WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE FAR N. MORE PRECIP WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SRN AREA AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN.

FOR SUN INTO MON...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE N
ESPECIALLY BY SUN NIGHT AS FRONT CONTINUES NWD AND MAIN LOW ALSO
MOVES INTO THE ERN GULF. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER OVER THE N WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.
THE SHALLOW OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER
THOUGH...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME SNOW TO FALL OVER THE NRN 1/4TH OF
THE AREA. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT
THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE FAR NRN AREA
SUN NIGHT AND MON. DID BLEND IN 15Z SREF POPS WITH PREVIOUS TO
SHOW INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...LARGER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIP INTO THE
AREA...BUT ALSO WARM THINGS A BIT MORE. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
POTENTIAL TO THE FAR N BY TUE. THERE WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
TUE-WED AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WINDS AS WELL DUE TO INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-051-052.

&&

EAL/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU