Gale Warning 433, NWS Juneau, AK

825 
FZAK67 PAJK 081225
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-090100-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-090100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N HALF...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 19 FT. S HALF...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN
THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT...STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST PORTION.
SEAS 26 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

903 
FZAK67 PAJK 082049 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 
1145 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-090100-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-090100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1145 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N HALF...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S HALF...S WIND 35 KT. 
SEAS 19FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT...STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST PORTION.
SEAS 26 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
312 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
BREAKS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 50N/150W
WILL DEEPEN INTO THE UPPER 950S THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS AND LIFT
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF FROM STRONG CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH TO KEEP COOLER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF IN THE MORNING. BY
THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL START TO PULL TO THE WEST AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MORE PARALLEL OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH A
SOUTHERNLY GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS. FOR THE
MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE IN
THE LIQUID FORM. PLACES CLOSE TO THE INTERIOR...TAKU
INLET, MENDENHALL VALLEY, HYDER AND OVER THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE SOME SNOW BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES
WITH THE MOST NEAR HYDER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
STORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS. THE 12Z EC INITIALIZED
WELL ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM AND WERE USED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THEY ARE IN THE LIQUID FORM BUT AREAS
OVER THE FAR NORTHER INNER CHANNELS AND NEAR TAKU INLET AND THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1
INCH. THE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL ALSO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HYDER
AREA WILL SEE WEAK WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO FALL BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN IN
THE LATE MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
TO 40 TO 45 MPH FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS FROM THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
STRONG GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS AND WITH THE INCREASING NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY WILL INCREASE AND GUSTS
NEAR 35 MPH BY MID DAY BUT THEN RELAX AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE
WEST. THE JUNEAU AREA MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR STRONG WIND
FROM A POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED TAKU WIND EVENT.

.LONG TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NNW AWAY
FROM THE REGION TUE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL FLIP TO A SSELY
DIRECTION IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN INSIDE CHANNELS...WHILE
GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO
COOL TO AOB -30 C BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE GULF AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS THEN SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DRIFTING WWD...WHILE A SECOND LOW ADVANCES NE TO A
LOCATION SSE OF HAIDA GWAII WED NIGHT AND THU. THE POSITION OF
THESE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS COMBINED WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NWRN
CANADA WILL FAVOR AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM LATE
IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT IN NATURE...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THU AND FRI.

THEREAFTER...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND /THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE IN
TERMS OF HOW THIS PATTERN EXACTLY EVOLVES/...WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LYNN CANAL WHERE THEY ARE STILL NORTH. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
MORE E/W SO THE WINDS IN N/S CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
ESE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE GALES OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND NEAR CROSS SOUND. THE REST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KT WITH GALES OVER NORTHERN LYNN.
THE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AND COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PULLS TO THE WEST AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

LARGE SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND 15 TO
20 FOOT SEAS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035.

&&

ABJ/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU