Gale Warning 421, NWS Juneau, AK

280 
FZAK52 PAJK 290547 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300000-
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHWEST AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH
SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-300000-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-300000-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-300000-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-300000-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12
FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SE
SWELL.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-300000-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
847 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL SHIFTING TO THE SE LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

194 
FZAK52 PAJK 291240
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GLACIER BAY TO WEST OF
SITKA SOUND AND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. AREAS OF GALE FORCE
WIND WILL OCCUR EAST OF THIS FRONT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ON MON. 

$$

PKZ041-300100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO
14 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT WEST PART. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO
14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL
SHIFTING TO THE SE LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWWD AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVE N ALONG
IT THRU SUN. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF WAVES...BUT GIVEN FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...THINK THEY WILL NOT BE
TOO STRONG. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR TONIGHT AND
SUN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS...HOW
MUCH MORE SNOW WILL FALL NEAR WHITE PASS...AND WINDS. THE SRN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE NEAR A PAKW-PAWG LINE. AS FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SE...THIS EDGE SHOULD SHIFT
NWWD AND REACH THE PAJN-PASI AREAS AROUND 15Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE
NW TO BE JUST SE OF A PAGS-PAGY LINE SUN AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY ABOUT 60+ MILES NW OF THE SERN PRECIP
EDGE. THE WRN EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP BAND IS AROUND ICY BAY AND
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE GENERAL AREA THRU SUN. LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN THE PAYA AND PAJN AREAS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUN.

THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR PAGY IS ABOUT 2400 FEET BASED ON TEMP NEAR
MOORE CREEK OBSERVATION SITE. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO REMAIN
BELOW TOP OF WHITE PASS THRU SUN WITH SOME LOWERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE TOP OF WHITE PASS COULD GET UP TO 16
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THRU SUN AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WHITE PASS UNTIL 6 PM SUN.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF FRONT. GALE FORCE S-SE WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND SOME INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AND
SUN WITH LOW PRESSURE WAVES MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE REMAINING INNER CHANNELS
WILL SEE SCA LEVEL WINDS...ALTHOUGH NRN LYNN CANAL WILL NOT GET
BACK TO THAT LEVEL UNTIL SUN. GLACIER BAY SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
LEVELS THRU SUN. WILL KEEP STRONG WIND HEADLINES GOING FOR PUBLIC
ZONES 23 AND 27 THRU SUN AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SRN PANHANDLE WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE TONIGHT BUT
WITH SOME WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. IF ANY DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT IN
SOME LOCAL AREAS HOWEVER...SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SNOW / POTENTIALLY HEAVY / WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY NEAR WHITE PASS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT CURRENTLY PRODUCING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WEST AS EMBEDDED WAVES RIDE UP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TPW IMAGERY INDICATING A LONG SWATH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH, SO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS CYCLE TO
FINALLY END ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND DISPLACED THE CURRENT FRONT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE OUTER COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL THE WHILE, SUFFICIENT WARM AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ADVECTED UP FROM THE SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW
LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW FOR FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS WHITE PASS, WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE PRESENT FRONT WILL STILL BE GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST MARINE ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT ON TUESDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER - GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KTS. A WAVE APPROACHING
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY FEATURE GALE FORCE WINDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST. SITUATION WILL REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE VARIOUS WAVES REPRESENTS THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST, AS MODELS ARE IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO
PRESSURE AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. NUDGED HEAVILY TO THE LATEST
WPC FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. REMAINDER OF THE
PREVIOUS WIND FORECAST UNCHANGED. MODEL AGREEMENT MUCH BETTER IN
TERMS OF POP AND QPF. USED A BLEND OF GFS AND CANADIAN NH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WAVES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-034-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-033-035-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU