Gale Warning 413, NWS Juneau, AK

699 
FZAK52 PAJK 270316 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-272130-
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-272130-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 
50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-272130-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 
50 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-272130-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-272130-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55
KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-272130-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
616 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

162 
FZAK52 PAJK 271233
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-280100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE
FRI EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE FRI
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 

$$

PKZ041-280100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING
TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-280100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 55
KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-280100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-280100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-280100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...STILL AT TALE OF TWO FEATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THAT
IS HOLDING THE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. THIS RIDGE
IS SLOWLY CONTINUES TO BE FORCED EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
STRONG FLOW PATTERN ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND HAS HEAVY
RAIN FALLING IN THE YAKUTAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT OF
15 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS UP 35. THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO STALL AND RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. DO EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT WAVE AND IMPULSE.

RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE PANHANDLE
FOR CHICHAGOF ISLAND AND GLACIER BAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
MORE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS
WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP. USED NAM
AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ON THE FRONT OVER THE
FAR ERN GULF. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM TO
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM THRU DAYTIME SUN. HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NE GULF
COAST SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT...THEN THE
CENTRAL AREA SAT. MAY GET AS FAR S AS THE SRN OUTER COAST SAT.
LOOKS LIKE A WAVE MAY TRY TO SHIFT THE HEAVIER PRECIP BAND A BIT
TO THE N SAT NIGHT AND SUN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH
RAIN WITH ISOLATED 8+ INCH TOTALS WHERE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS
LONGEST THRU SUN. THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH ONLY FOR WHITE PASS TO HAVE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...AND ONLY AT THE VERY TOP OF THE PASS IT APPEARS. THINK
IF THEY GET HEAVY SNOW IT WILL BE SAT-SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN WHETHER THE SNOW LEVEL STAYS LOW ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE
PASS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS ATTM.

THERE WILL BE GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU FRI
NIGHT...THEN POTENTIALLY MORE GALE FORCE WINDS SAT ANT SAT NIGHT
OVER THE SE GULF AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES NWD. MOST INNER
CHANNELS WILL PEAK AT SCA LEVELS ALTHOUGH NEAR CAPE DECISION SOME
GALES MAY OCCUR FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. CLARENCE STRAIT AND SE
PART OF FREDERICK SOUND MAY ALSO SEE GALES FRI NIGHT THRU SUN.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD THRU THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA NEAR SEA LEVEL.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHERE FRONT WILL GO AND
TIMING OF ANOTHER SYSTEM OR TWO COMING TOWARD THE AREA. DECIDED TO
KEEP AREA GENERALLY WET AND MILD FOR MON-THU BASED ON LONG WAVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ034-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-035-053.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU