Gale Warning 366, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 5, 2015, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 5, 2015, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

753 
FZAK52 PAJK 051245
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THU MORNING.
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY FRI MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 4, 3:46 PM AKST, 12 hours 14 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE KICKS OUT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS HAS SET UP BRIEF LOW LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE OUTER COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE YUKON BUT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD
AS A STRONG FRONT COMES INTO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY.
RADAR SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH PARTS.
CONFIDENT ABOUT FOG TONIGHT BUT IFFY ON THE INTENSITY. HOW MUCH
CLEARING? WILL ANY WIND KICK IN TO MIX? MENTIONED AREAS. RAIN
APPROACHES WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG WELL WRAPPED UP LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY TRACK MOVING OVER KODIAK BY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WEAKENING TO 980 MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL CROSS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THEN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN, LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AK GULF AND MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT ANY DRY WEATHER FROM THIS RIDGE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW DROPPING INTO
THE BERING SEA THE START OF NEXT WEEK MOVE INTO THE AK GULF. IF
THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE CORRECT THEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLD AIR AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.

 MAX GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY EARLY MORNING WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT OF MAX SMALL CRAFT THEN
DROP WITH THE PASSING FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE N GULF
RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER N AND S LYNN CANAL. BEFORE
THE LOW WEAKEN SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF BUT
GREATER IMPACT WITH BE THE HIGH SEAS, 18 TO 24 FEET, FROM THE
SWELL AROUND THE LOW.

HEAVY RAIN INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS OF
OVER HALF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE FRONT.
MOST AREAS WITH SEE PRECIP AS RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS STEADY AROUND
2000 FT. THE EXCEPTION BEING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS WHITE
PASS WHERE SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW. POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN BACK TO HIGHER POPS AS THE NEXT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE N
GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. MAIN DIFFERENCE SIS THE TIMING OF MOVING THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH, WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. USED MORE
GFS20 TO UPDATE INHERITED GRIDS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES WITH NEXT
LARGE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING, SO USED THE ENSEMBLE BLEND
CREATED BY WPC FOR DAY 5 TO DAY 8. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THEN DROPS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WENT IFR FOR SOME OF THE TAFS IN FOG TONIGHT AND SHOWED
MVFR IN LOTS OF TAFS. MORNING BREAKOUT TIME WILL BE A DIFFICULT
CALL DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE VERSUS WHEN THE WIND WILL KICK IN FOR
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLIES ARE ALMOST OVER. A FEW NORTH WINDS WITH THE
HIGH IN THE YUKON THIS EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF SWELL THIS
EVENING. NEXT UP IS WHOLE GALES AHEAD OF THIS MONDO FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH UP SOME NASTY SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. SMALL CRAFTS FOR
MANY OF THE INSIDE WATERS & USE AFTERNOON AS TIMING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...COORDINATED QPF WITH RFC. NOT ENUF IN THE FRONT TO SET
OFF THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. THEY WILL BE IN OPERATIONS FOR TWO MORE
DAYS THEN WINTER HOURS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-031>036-041-053.

&&

JC/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.