Gale Warning 362, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER THE
BROAD RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TRACK ALONG THE COAST EXPECT
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIP WITH IT. OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
-SN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS MARGINALLY SUPPORT
PTYPE OF SN JUST N OF A PAJN- PAGS LINE...SO INCLUDED MENTION OF
SCHC-CHC MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BUILDING SEAS MAINTAINING
ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT. OVER THE INSIDE WATERS...A WEAKENING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WINDS TODAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST USING NAM12 AND WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE.
TWO DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WITH THE LAST ONE
DRAGGING A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE GULF FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SYSTEM NUMBER ONE SHOWS UP FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT BRINGING RAIN
AND WIND TO THE AREA. FEW CHANGES DONE TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND ADD DETAILS TO THE SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF IS STILL AROUND 2 TO 4 MB DEEPER THEN MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS, BUT THE TIMING AND TRACK HAS A RATHER GOOD CONSENSUS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND AS ALL OF THE WIND IS POST
FRONTAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE GRADIENT IS HIGH ENOUGH
FOR GALE FORCE WIND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND .5 TO 1.5 INCHES TOTAL. NO SNOW EXPECTED AT SEA
LEVEL THOUGH WHITE PASS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ENOUGH QPF MAY
MAKE IT UP THERE TO GIVE THEM A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT.

SYSTEM NUMBER TWO IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO SYSTEMS. BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 970 MB AT THE SW TIP OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA ON THU, THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE GULF AND SENDS A GALE FORCE FRONT TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE. MAIN CHANGES HERE WERE A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THE
WINDS IN THE GULF TO A 40 TO 45 KT GALE ON THU AND INCREASING POPS
TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. MAINLY USED SOME EC AND GEM FOR GUIDANCE
AS GFS WAS A BIT TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION.

INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES ONCE IT REACHES THE GULF CAUSES THE FORECAST TO BECOME MURKY.
THE MOST LIKELY TREND IS CONTINUE WET WEATHER AS WESTERLY FLOW
STILL CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK TROUGH THOUGH DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY AT BEST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

BC/EAL

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