Gale Warning 356, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
437 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT
EAST SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY EAST OF 140W. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WEST OF THE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA IS STREAMING A THROUGH INTO THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND KENAI PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND FEATURE SOUTH OF THE GULF AND ALSO MOVING NORTHWARD.

EXPECT THE CENTRAL GULF WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS ICY BAY BY
THE AFTERNOON. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY WEST OF
CAPE FAIRWEATHER ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE HAS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS
STREAMING THROUGH IT. ONLY THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE PANHANDLE TO SEE ANY BREAKS OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. SO THE
BETTER CHANCE OF FOG TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE JUST SE OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED
FRONT OVER THE FAR WRN GULF WED NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GULF THU NIGHT...THEN THE ERN GULF FRI WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRI...AND MERGE WITH THE
OTHER FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INLAND. ENDED UP USING MAINLY THE 12Z GFS FOR WED NIGHT-FRI...THEN
LATEST WPC FOR FRI NIGHT ONWARD. DID BLEND IN SOME GEM REGIONAL
FOR WED NIGHT TO SMOOTH THE TRANSITION FROM SHORT RANGE.

FOR WED NIGHT-THU...SFC HIGH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SRN AREA AND
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THREAT FOR FOG OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. FURTHER N...LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE AROUND WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND...SO THINK FOG THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED FOR THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP
WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE N GULF COAST W OF PAYA...ALTHOUGH
SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW INNER CHANNELS UNDER LOW STRATUS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO GALES OVER THE WRN PART OF THE GULF MARINE AREAS LATE WED
NIGHT...AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY E ACROSS THE ERN GULF
THU.

FOR THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWD
INTO THE PAYA AREA THU NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE NW INNER
CHANNELS FRI. THINK HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE NE GULF
COAST AROUND PAYA CLOSER TO UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL JET. MAY SEE
SOME HEAVIER PRECIP TRY TO GET TO THE PAEL AREA LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT AS FRONT TRIES TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND AND NEXT FRONT CATCHES
UP TO IT BY LATE FRI NIGHT. THE SRN PANHANDLE WILL BE SLOW TO GET
INTO THE PRECIP DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE...BUT WITH IT
SLOWLY WEAKENING BY THE WEEKEND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL SPREAD
INTO THAT AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THINK PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN
FOR AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL BY THU NIGHT AS ANY REMNANTS OF SHALLOW
COLD AIR SHOULD BE SCRUBBED OUT BY INCREASING SELY WINDS. THIS
WILL BE THE CASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED NEAR SEA
LEVEL AREA WIDE...AND SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 2500-4000+ FT. KEPT
THE SPS GOING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NE GULF COAST FOR
THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT

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