Gale Warning 35, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
540 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
PAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER PULLS SOME CLOUD
SHIELDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE LOW PRODUCES SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTS FROM SITKA
SOUTHEAST TO CRAIG. POSTED STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AREA FOR THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES
AS WELL. ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...CLOUDS HAVE
DECREASED AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 30 AT
YAKUTAT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH SPORADIC RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. INCREASING DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER
JUNEAU MOUNTAINS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU
AND DOUGLAS. POSTED STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR JUNEAU ZONE. SOUTH
OF THE LOW...RAIN CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN
TIGHTENED NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND PRODUCED SOLID GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ECMWF
AND NAM MAKE A GOOD CONSENSUS AND ARE USED TO REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL BECOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STEADY AROUND THE EARLY
MORNING READINGS OR SLIGHTLY FALLING DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW...WIND CHILL WILL
POSSIBLY DROP TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. POSTED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
FREEZING SPRAY FOR SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE NORTHERN AND WIND PROTECTED
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AREAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM.../ SATURDAY TO THURSDAY / THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING UP INTO THE LOW 1050 MB RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LOWER 48 ALONG THE ROCKIE
MOUNTAINS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WILL AID IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESTABLISHING OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST MOUNTAINS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE MISTY FJORD
AREA. THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS WILL
USHER IN THE DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. SOUTHERN THIRD WILL
BREAK OUT BRIEFLY ON MONDAY.

EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO START SPREADING BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AS MIX OF RAIN
SNOW TO START...ALTHOUGH THE MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PRINCE OF
WALES MAY START AS SNOW. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (LESS AN A COUPLE
INCHES) I EXPECT TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL BE
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE A SOLID OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR THE PANHANDLE AND
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REALLY DEPEND UPON MOISTURE. SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

HOWEVER BEFORE THAT THAT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM... THE WIND WILL
BE BIG ISSUE. HAVE KEPT THE STRONG WIND HEADLINES RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE INNER CHANNEL AREAS. GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP REINFORCING THE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH PANHANDLE. MODELS
SIMILAR BUT THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME STRENGTH
TIMING ITEMS TO DEAL WITH. RIGHT NOW THE JUNEAU AREA LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TAKU LIKE MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS. HAVE
WINDS TO 50-55 MPH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER ONE OF THE
MODELS HAS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER DAY WITH SUGGESTIONS THAT IT
SHOULD BE WARNING STRENGTH. WITH THE PRESENT TIME FRAME WILL LET
NEXT SHIFT CONTINUE TO REVIEW IF IT SHOULD GET MORE THAN JUST THE
HEADLINE.

HEADED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE BROAD LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL
STRUGGLING TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND A COOL-COLD HIGHER
PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AKZ018-019-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-031-035-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>034-036-051>053.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 AM AKST FRI JAN 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       40 NW HAINES            59.65N 136.25W
01/02/2015  M13.0 INCH       XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WEDNESDAY SNOW TOTAL 3.5 INCHES PLUS THURSDAY SNOW TOTAL
            OF 9.5 INCHES EQUALS 13 INCHES.

&&

KAV