Gale Warning 286, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT THU SEP 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER SWRN PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR AK THIS MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING E
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF. STRONG ZONE OF ASCENT WAS OCCURRING N OF
THE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN GULF AND AKZ017. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z PAYA RAOB/ AND RESULTANT
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NRN GULF AS WELL AS AREAS AROUND YAKUTAT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING AKZ022 /ELFIN COVE/ AND AKZ023 /SITKA/. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD E
TOWARD JUNEAU DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN RAIN RATES UP TO A
HALF INCH PER 6 HRS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF COMBINED WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE OVER BC IS AIDING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CNTRL
PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE S SIDE OF DOUGLAS ISLAND
NNW TO SRN/NRN LYNN CANAL. MODEST ELY BARRIER JET TO 25 KT MAY
ALSO MATERIALIZE OVER COASTAL MARINE ZONES 51 AND 52 THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...120 KT 300 MB JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
GULF BY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER WRN CANADA YIELDING A 90 KT JETLET. COUPLED STRUCTURE BETWEEN
THESE TWO JETS WILL RESULT IN RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE PROGRESSING TOWARD THE SERN GULF. BY 12Z
FRI...GFS TAKES A 993 MB LOW TO AN AREA IMMEDIATELY N OF
SITKA...THE NAM SHOWS A 992 MB LOW IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE FROM
SITKA...AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT S AND E OF THE
LOW LATE TONIGHT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A 45 KT SLY 925 MB
JET...WILL YIELD MARINE WINDS TO 30 KT FROM STEPHENS PASSAGE SSW
TO COASTAL MARINE ZONE 41...AND 35 KT GALES OVER CLARENCE STRAIT.
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
AKZ027-028. FURTHERMORE...STRONG SYNOPTIC AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...COMBINED WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO 0.7-1.1 INCHES...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH
OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PANHANDLE.

PER COORDINATION WITH THE LONG TERM FORECASTER...USED AN ENSEMBLE
BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...INHERITED POP AND QPF APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT/ LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS
OUT WITH THE LOW, THAT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE IN THE SHORT
RANGE, RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MID RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM. RECENT
TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAVE TURNED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK (THE LOW NOW COMES IN OVER BARANOF ISLAND
RATHER THEN JUST SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND) AND GENERALLY WEAKER
(FAVORING A MIN STRENGTH OF AROUND 990 MB RATHER THEN THE 985 MB
OR LOWER THAT WAS FAVORED LAST NIGHT). FAVORED A BLEND WITH
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR MID RANGE UPDATES.

WINDS ARE STILL A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS IS STARTING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY AT THE
MOMENT. ELECTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 27 AND
28 FOR EARLY FRIDAY THOUGH TO SEE IF THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND
SEEN IN THE MODELS HOLDS OUT THROUGH FUTURE RUNS. AT THE VERY
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH IS STILL FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 45 TO 55 KT. AS FOR MARINE AREAS WIDE SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT WINDS FOR THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL BE
THE NORM WITH GALES TO 40 OR 45 KT LIKELY FOR CLARENCE STRAIT.

PAST FRI MORNING WINDS AND RAIN RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO CANADA AND SW TO W FLOW TAKES OVER THE GULF. ALOFT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL STUBBORNLY STICK OVER MOST OF ALASKA THROUGH
THE END OF THE LONG RANGE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
AND THE JET STREAM GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD. THIS RESULTS IN A
SEMI- PERMANENT AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WANDERING
AROUND THE GULF FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS REMAINING THE RULE
FOR THE PANHANDLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER
DOES NOT SHOW UP UNTIL NEXT THU AS THE GULF LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF
MOVING TO THE SE, SETTING UP MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BY THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED NEAR YAKUTAT DURING THE LAST 24
HRS...RESULTING IN RISING WATER LEVELS FOR THE SITUK RIVER. THE
RATE OF RISE HAS SINCE DECREASED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISING WATER LEVELS FOR MANY
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. HYDROLOGICAL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-033>035-041-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

GARNER/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1112 AM AKDT THU SEP 17 2015

AKZ018>029-180000-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
1112 AM AKDT THU SEP 17 2015

...STRONG STORM WILL AFFECT THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...RAIN WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY ELEVATED...AND WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO BANKFULL WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN SOME AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE...
PARTICULARLY THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY AS WELL AS MONTANA
CREEK IN JUNEAU ON FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS NEAR POINT
BAKER. THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
MUDSLIDES.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

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