Gale Warning 239, NWS Juneau, AK

368 
FZAK51 PAJK 121852 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-131300-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE N PACIFIC FRI MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAT MORNING AND EXTEND
NW TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.  

$$

PKZ011-131300-
GLACIER BAY-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-131300-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-131300-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-131300-
ICY STRAIT-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-131300-
CROSS SOUND-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-131300-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-131300-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-131300-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-131300-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-131300-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-131300-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1052 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST OF
BARANOF ISLAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
INCREASINGLY CONFINE HIGHEST SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE SRN PANHANDLE.
FARTHER W...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND
DURING MIDDAY THU WILL TREK ACROSS THE SRN GULF TONIGHT. MODEST
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE
GULF IMPULSE AS IT APPROACHES HAIDA GWAII DURING FRI AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -22 C COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER /COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS/ AND
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PANHANDLE...OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/RIDGE CRESTS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG OVER INTERIOR AK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH
THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH REACHING AKZ017 BY 00Z SAT.
RESULTANT ASCENT AND A MOISTENING MIDLEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF THE SAINT ELIAS MOUNTAINS
DURING FRI AFTERNOON.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WARM SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI...DUE TO A 1-2 DEG C INCREASE AT
850 MB...AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER.
THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LYNN CANAL INTO THE SRN YUKON WILL
GO THROUGH ANOTHER PERIOD OF DIURNAL WEAKENING AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SLY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE PROBABLE DURING THE RESTRENGTHENING
PHASE OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE CANAL...AND GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE
ALSO LIKELY FOR SKAGWAY.

INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NUDGED TO THE 12Z NAM. POP/QPF GRIDS
REFLECT A COARSE/HI-RES MODEL BLEND.

.LONG TERM...BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THRU THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SW AK AND CLOSES OFF TO AN UPPER HIGH BY
SUN. UPPER TROF WILL DIG SEWD THRU THE FAR ERN GULF AND SE AK FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN BECOME AN UPPER LOW W OF HAIDA GWAII SAT
NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT A BIT MORE TO THE S FOR SUN AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THESE
FEATURES...THEY DIFFER ON SMALLER SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE FLOW
ESPECIALLY NEAR SE AK. IT IS THESE SHORTWAVES THAT MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND OF A WARMUP STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. ENDED UP USING A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM AND PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR FRI NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH
12Z GEM/ECMWF BLEND FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT AS THEY WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. USED PRIMARILY LATEST WPC FOR MON
ONWARD.

FOR FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...AS UPPER TROF DIGS SEWD THRU THE
AREA...WILL HAVE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP AFTER IT MOVES PAST THE
AREA ALONG WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AT THE LEAST GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SPREADING FROM THE N LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE PRECIP THREAT SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE N
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LIKELY. THE PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD REACH THE SRN AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SPREADING TO THE OUTER COAST BY LATER SAT NIGHT AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ELY. STILL NOT GOING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW
MUCH PRECIP THEY GENERATE FROM IT.

FOR SUN-MON...THE N SHOULD SEE MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME. STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP MAXIMIZE AMOUNT OF WARMING
AS WELL...SO MUCH OF THE N WILL GET WELL INTO THE 70S FOR SUN AND
MON. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WX DUE TO LOWERING RH AND GUSTY N-NE WINDS. THE
S WILL STILL HAVE SOME SHORTWAVES BRUSHING PAST THEM...KEEPING IN
MORE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR PRECIP THERE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE S SUN AND MON...WITH
LOW LEVEL TROF THERE AND SHORTWAVES PUSHING WWD THRU THAT AREA.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES...DECIDED TO
KEEP A SIMPLISTIC PRECIP FORECAST AND JUST CALLED IT STRATIFORM
FOR NOW.

FOR TUE ONWARD...SOME OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE SRN AREA MAY TRY TO
MOVE BACK TO THE N...BUT THERE ARE INCREASING DIFFERENCES ON THIS
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WPC WAS MORE ECMWF-CENTRIC WHICH IS SLOWER TO
BRING ANY CLOUDS BACK INTO THE N AND SLOWER TO COOL THINGS OFF.
DID ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY COME NWD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.

&&

GARNER/RWT

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