Gale Warning 15, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...RATHER ACTIVE SHORT RANGE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SYSTEM NUMBER ONE IS JUST EXITING THE PANHANDLE AFTER
BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN AND SOME WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVED IN JUST NORTH OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE AS IT WAS WEAKENING BUT IT STILL MANAGED TO GIVE SOME 25
TO 30 KT SW WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT. CONFIRMED BY CAPE
DECISION AND A SPOTTER IN POINT BAKER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PRECIP
MOST OF IT WAS RAIN THOUGH THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS, AS
WELL AS HYDER GOT SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT (.5 INCHES AT HYDER AT UP TO
THREE ON BOTH HIGHWAYS NEAR THE BORDER).

WITH THAT SYSTEM ON ITS WAY OUT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW THAT
IS JUST ENTERING THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH WHERE THE LOW WILL GO WITH
SOLUTIONS AS VARIED AS NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE TO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HOWEVER MODELS ARE REACHING AN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN GALE FORCE LOW TRACKING NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR CAPE SUCKLING BEFORE WEAKENING THERE TUE
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS WHAT CONCERNS THE PANHANDLE AS IT
SPREADS GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUE. 850 MB WINDS WITH THIS FRONT REACH 50 TO 60 KT OVER MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING
BUT IT IS A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE THE
STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST
POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH. THE WINDS WILL SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH WRANGELL, JUNEAU, ANGOON, AND
HOONAH GETTING IN ON THE ACT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE MAIN AREA
OF WIND SHOULD BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE BY TUE AFTERNOON BUT MAY
HANG ON FOR A LITTLE MORE IN KETCHIKAN AND IN LYNN CANAL. AS FOR
MARINE AREAS MOST WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WIND CONDITIONS
STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

RAIN WILL BE THE OTHER BIG HEADACHE AS UPWARD OF .75 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. WITH THE WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THEIR MAY BE SOME
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN TOMORROW. FOR THE EXTREME
NORTH ON THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS THE CONCERN CHANGES TO
SNOW. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR WHITE PASS WITH
UPWARDS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ON THE PASS ON TUE. THE
HAINES ROAD WILL BE TRICKIER AS TEMPERATURES THERE ARE ALREADY
NEAR FREEZING AND MAY BE GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW FALL NEAR THE BORDER (3 TO 5
INCHES) TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHWAY. THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE WET, HEAVY AND POSSIBLY SLOPPY SO TRAVEL WILL
BE DIFFICULT THERE ON TUES. HOWEVER, TEMPS COULD WARM UP FAST
ENOUGH IN THE CHILKAT VALLEY THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP COULD END UP
AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. SO UNCERTAINLY DOES EXIST FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS ON THE HAINES HIGHWAY ON TUE. OTHER WISE THE ONLY OTHER
PLACE THAT MAY SEE SNOW IS HYDER AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMING UP
SOON ENOUGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO LESS THEN 4
INCHES BEFORE IT ALL CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

.LONG TERM...A VERY WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA FOR
MIDWEEK. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF LONG
RANGE TUE NIGHT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...WITH ONE
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING TUE NIGHT AND WED.
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH...AND EVEN A BIT
ABOVE 1 INCH OVER THE SRN AREA BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THESE ARE VERY
HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD
HIGH...AND INDICATIVE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ABOUT WED
EVENING. RAINFALL ABOVE 3 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PANHANDLE FROM TUE NIGHT THRU WED EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS SO THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG
WITH THE WIND WILL INCREASE THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA.
SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL OR ABOVE AS WELL...WITH THE
LARGER RIVERS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
COVERING ALL THE ABOVE CONDITIONS. KEPT THE WSW FOR WHITE PASS
GOING UNTIL 5 AM WED...WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND TEMPS GET NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING...POSSIBLY CAUSING
SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WENT FOR ADDITIONAL 9 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
IN WHITE PASS. THINK THE HAINES HIGHWAY WILL SEE TEMPS RISING TUE
NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN...SO DID NOT KEEP THE WWA
FOR THEM FOR TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE 12Z GEM AND ECMWF
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT.

LATER IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...MORE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FRI TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN JUST S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BE CLOSE. USED
WPC FOR THE MOST PART TO HANDLE FRI ONWARD AS THE MODELS DO
DIVERGE SOME ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. ALL IN ALL...VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ023-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ022-024.
         STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-053.

&&

EAL/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKST MON JAN 19 2015

AKZ018>029-200300-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
351 PM AKST MON JAN 19 2015

...HEAVY RAIN WIND AND LANDSLIDE/MUDSLIDE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER WARM MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG
WINDS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
FALL ALONG THE KLODIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS ON TUESDAY. SEPARATE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ALERTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW ON THESE
ROADS.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS WILL OBSERVE A RANGE OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND ONE HALF OF RAINFALL TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY UP TO 2 INCHES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH ON TUESDAY.

IMPACTS - EXPECT SMALL STREAMS TO RISE AND APPROACH BANK FULL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAJOR RIVERS WILL NOT RISE RAPIDLY DUE TO THE LOW
CONDITIONS ON THESE. WINDY CONDITIONS MAY INTERRUPT POWER AND
UPROOT TREES. MUDSLIDES AND LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER INFORMATION SOURCES FOR
UPDATES ON THE PROGRESS OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND.

VISIT HTTP://PAJK.RAH.NOAA.GOV FOR TEXT...GRAPHICAL...AND POINT
FORECASTS.