Gale Warning 113, NWS Juneau, AK

719 
FZAK67 PAJK 151232
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-160100-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NW INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND
TO NEAR COLD BAY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NW CANADA WILL PERSIST.  

$$

PKZ310-160100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WESTERN HALF...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN HALF...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW NEAR
KODIAK AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH 25 TO
35 MPH NEAR SKAGWAY AND HAINES. SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE BEEN DECREASING A LITTLE.
CONTINUED WARMING TREND BROUGHT UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...EXCEPT UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S NEAR WHITE PASS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR WHITE PASS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONSOLIDATES MORE RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE OPEN WATER
AREAS AND INCREASES POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR
KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES ASHORE BY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES
FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OCCLUDED
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. BEHIND OF
THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO
CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR COLD BAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE
ECMWF AND NAM FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS AND QPF FIELDS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY
FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EASTWARD INTO CANADA AND LOWER
PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE GULF...ONSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA
WILL MAINLY FOCUS NEAR HYDER TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MORE STRATIFORM RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE OUTER WATERS
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT LOW
TOWARD COLD BAY.

.LONG TERM...SHARP RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
PANHANDLE EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT IT IS TRANSIENT AS THE AXIS
MOVES TO THE EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE NEW WAVE...WELL OFF COAST...WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WEST OF YAKUTAT. IT IS
PROGGED TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW NIGHT WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THEN A
SECOND WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...AGAIN
LIKELY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN HALF AND PRODUCING GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ONLY THE
YAKUTAT AREA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM
BOTH WAVES WILL WELL OVER AN INCH PROGGED. WINDS WILL BE GALES
WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS AND SCA-LEVEL ELSEWHERE OVER CROSS SOUND THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z TUES. EFFECTS ON THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MINOR AS STRONG GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM AND THE ONLY THREAT OF ANY SNOWFALL IS A BRIEF ONE UP
ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND BRIEFLY AT
HAINES TOMORROW NIGHT NEAR SEA LEVEL...ALL OTHER AREAS AT SEA
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ON THIS ONE. AFTER THESE 2 WEAK WAVES
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH IMBEDDED WAVES INTENSIFIES BY
MIDWEEK AND THE TIMING OF THE WAVES IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE...AS USUAL. USED A COMBO OF NAM/EC EARLY ON...THEN MOSTLY
EC PRIOR TO GOING WITH WPC FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THIS YIELDED
A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUES PM/WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RAINFALL...MOST INTENSE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AGAIN APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT.
THEN WITH THE EXTENDED HPC GRIDS THIS CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH
DAY 8. THROUGH THE PERIOD GUIDANCE INDICATES THERMAL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND THIS AGREES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING THE PERIODIC
RAIN TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO. BOTH THE EC AND
GFS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER BY WEEKEND ALL BETS ARE OFF
IN THAT ONLY A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 40 DEG AND RAIN/WIND OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND AT LEAST ONE DAY OF 45-50 DEG AND PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF CONTINUED PERIODIC BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK LONG IN THE CURRENT SETUP. NO SIGN OF
ANY RETURN OF CONTINENTAL AIR AT THIS POINT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
YAK AREA IN THE MEANTIME STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF GENERALLY RAINY
WEATHER WITH A FEW ON/OFF BREAKS.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NECESSARY ON MON-TUES IN THE PRES/WIND
FIELDS...UTILIZED EC/NAM AND SOME GFS FOR UPDATES ON THE MOISTURE
FIELDS. CHANGE IN MODEL DYNAMIC FIELDS (WPC AND EXTENDED GFS/EC) REQUIRED
A NEW WIND UPDATE FOR DAYS 4-8 (WITH TWEAKS) HOWEVER PREDICTED
GRADIENTS REMAINED WEAK TO MODERATE OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR THE PERIOD.
MODEL CONFIDENCE GENERALLY AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING
OFF AFTER ABOUT DAY 5 PER USUAL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042-053.

&&

AHN/WESLEY

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