Winter Storm Warning 30, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
139 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH 60 HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT
INITIALIZING AND TRACKING WELL EXCEPT WITH EACH OTHER. MOS FROM
EACH MODEL DIFFER WIDELY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON WHETHER CERTAIN AREAS WILL HAVE CLOUDS
PRESENT OR NOT BUT THE MOS TEMPERATURES DO NO CORRELATE WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF CLOUDS OR NO CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE BERING WILL COMBINE AND DEVELOP THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH FROM EAST TO WEST AND THEN ELONGATE SOUTHWARD AND
BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. BECAUSE THE TROUGH WILL BE RATHER DEEP IT
WILL DEVELOP A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND THEN MOVE IT EASTWARD AND ORIENT IT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST.

THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH ITS TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
REACHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL PUSH
COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN ALASKA. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE RIDGE PUSHES THE COLD AIR EASTWARD VERY
RAPIDLY.

THE GRADIENT IS SUBSIDING ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD PICK UP BRIEFLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
SUBSIDE BRIEFLY BEFORE PICKING BACK UP WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD ON WED NIGHT ALONG WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.
&&

CF DEC 15