Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS
IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS BRINGING SLIGHTLY
MORE PRECIPITATION INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WE NUDGED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

THE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL COOLING
TREND IN IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
COLDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH.

.EASTERN INTERIOR...THE MAIN WEATHER ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL WILL BE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA RANGE. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT PUSHES OF MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE FIRST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST
PUSH OF MOISTURE...WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ZONES 225 AND 226 WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OUT FOR ZONES
222...223 AND 224. STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE EXPECTED
IN ZONES 225 AND 226. STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN ZONES 222...223 AND 224...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EAST
OF FAIRBANKS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
HEADLINES FOR THE SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY NOT STOP BETWEEN THE TWO PUSHES OF
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORT LIVED DECREASE IN
SNOWFALL INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO EVENTS. LOOKING TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATES LOOK TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER MOVES AWAY. IF THE
CLOUDS STICK AROUND THE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH.

.WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING IN GALENA DROPPED DOWN TO MINUS 38 THIS MORNING. A
COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PATCHY ICE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES IN THE SHORT
TERM...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

.NORTH SLOPE...THE NORTH SLOPE CAN EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DECREASING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
NEXT DAY COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES
FOR WINDCHILL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

RM JAN 15