Wind Advisory 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

303 
WWAK72 PAFG 181955
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1155 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2015

AKZ217-182100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-150918T2000Z/
UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK...KOBUK
1155 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
403 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON
AND THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA
WETTER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MON FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ANIAK TO OLD CROW WILL MOVE TO
MCGRATH TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4PM FRI...TO MINCHUMINA TO ATIGUN
PASS BY 4AM SAT...THEN STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN. 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 2000 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
WILL MOVE NORTH TO NABESNA TO BURWASH LANDING BY 4PM FRI...TO
MENTASTA TO MAYO BY 4AM SAT...THEN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUN.
THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN ABOVE 3000 FT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SE
INTERIOR WITH THIS. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR MAY
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000-3000 FT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN IN THE AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE THE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE AT THE SURFACE FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH RISING
TO 1500 FT OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND SW INTERIOR...AND TO 3000 FT
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. BY TONIGHT AND SAT SNOW LEVELS OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL DROP TO THE SURFACE TO 1000
FT TONIGHT AND TO 1000-2000 FT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. BY SUN
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THE SURFACE MOST AREAS.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO
DEADHORSE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND TO
AMBLER TO BETHEL BY 4AM SAT THEN DISSIPATING. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND ALONG WESTERN
CAPES OF THE WEST COAST. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SNOW IN THOSE AREAS WITH NORTH FACING COASTS. THERE WILL BE
DOWN SLOPE AREAS DEVOID OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION
SHADOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF
ALASKA NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE
FLURRIES AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. GALES FORCE GUSTS NOW ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF THE
WEST COAST WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

A 990 MB LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
SUN. AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW A 992 MB LOW NEAR
MAYO WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD THROUGH TIME.

A 1010 MB LOW WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA FRI NIGHT...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AS A 1006 MB LOW BY
4PM SAT AND TO NEAR BETHEL AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4AM SUN...THEN
CONTINUE MOVING SE. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW MIX WITH THIS LOW AS IT
MOVES OVER ZONES 213 AND 214. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUN...WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODERATE SURF ALONG NORTH
SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE NONE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS IN THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE AT HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVELS
BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

JB SEP 15